The Recession Has Bottomed
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
January 16, 2009
I know it's bad out there...
But you must remember, this recession WILL end.
Chances are excellent we're more than halfway through. You have to go back to the early 1930s (the Great Depression) to find a recession that lasted longer than 16 months.
Since this recession started in late 2007, it will undoubtedly be the longest since the Great Depression. But as I'll show today, I believe the recession has already hit bottom and could end before the end of this year.
Stock prices typically bottom out in the middle of recessions. This is because stock prices "look ahead." They "see" recovery before recovery actually arrives.
Consumers don't look ahead like this... They are interested in their present situation, which is not good. So while stock prices can bottom in the middle of recessions, consumer confidence typically bottoms at the end of recessions. People don't see things getting less bad... It's a "darkest-before-the-dawn" type thing.
It helps to see what I'm talking about. So take a look at this chart, which shows how the stock market behaves during recessions (the shaded blue periods)...
The Stock Market Usually Bottoms in the Middle of a Recession |
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If you focus on the two longest recessions (1973-75 and 1981-82), you can see stocks bottomed in the mid-to-late innings of those two major recessions.
Now take a look at consumer confidence...
Consumer Confidence Usually Bottoms Late in a Recession |
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Again, focus on the last two "real" recessions... around '74 and '82. You can see consumer confidence bottomed just about at the end of those recessions. Today, consumer confidence sits at a record low – lower than in the 193-75 recession, which was the worst recession of our time.
These two things – the stock market and consumer confidence – paint a simple picture.
If the November stock-market bottom holds, and the record low in consumer confidence holds, we may be closer to the end of this recession than just about anyone thinks. It's too early to know for sure, but these factors suggest the recession may have bottomed, and things are already getting "less bad."
I believe and hope that's true. If I'm right, you should make a pile of money investing in both stocks and bonds in 2009.
Good investing,
Steve
P.S. If stocks fall below that November low, and consumer confidence keeps falling to even lower record lows, then we're not done yet. Either way, I'll keep you updated.
Editor's note: Steve Sjuggerud is a regular contributor to DailyWealth, a free investment newsletter focused on the world's best contrarian opportunities. We write with a simple belief in mind: You don't have to take big risks to make big money with your investments.
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THIS LINE IS MUCH MORE SERIOUS THAN COPPER
One more line in the sand this week... one we're close to crossing... one even more serious than $1.30 copper.
Today's "line" is the $34 level for the iShares U.S. Financial Fund (IYF). With over $500 million in assets, it's one of the largest and most liquid ways to make a broad bet on the financial industry.
We featured a chart of the IYF back in November 2007. Financials had just shattered a four-year uptrend. The mortgage mess was hitting the papers. We took a line from Dennis Gartman and claimed "more cockroaches would crawl out" of the financial sector. Crawl out they did... and the IYF was clobbered from $110 to $35 in just over a year.
The IYF carries large weightings in JPMorgan, Visa, Citibank, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and American Express. These companies live and die along with the public's ability to earn money, invest money, launch businesses, and generally just "get along." This fund hit a panic low of $34 a share on November 20. If IYF shatters this level and these stocks make another leg down, it's a huge red flag America isn't getting along at all. IYF, we're pulling for you.
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The average U.S. rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell below 5 percent this week for the first time on record as a government program to buy mortgage-backed bonds lowered borrowing costs.
The fixed rate dropped to 4.96 percent from 5.01 percent a week earlier, Freddie Mac said in a report today. That's the lowest in data that goes back to 1971, according to the McLean, Virginia-based mortgage buyer.
The Federal Reserve last week started buying $500 billion of mortgage-backed securities to boost prices for mortgage bonds in the hopes that lenders will reduce the interest rates they charge.
No matter how low the rates go, it won't help homeowners who have lost their jobs or seen the value of their property tumble, said Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist at IHS Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts.
"The Fed is arm twisting to get rates lower, but we're 2 million jobs fewer than we were in July and we've seen home prices continue to fall, so we're in a bigger hole," Bethune said. |
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A federal agency will provide President George W. Bush with an 8,000-square-foot office near his affluent Dallas neighborhood when he leaves the White House and returns to Texas.
Officials with the General Services Administration say the lease on the $311,000-per-year space begins this summer. The lease will run 10 years.
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