The Man Who Predicted It... And Where We Go From Here
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
October 10, 2008
"The euro could soon be history."
That was the title of Jack Crooks' speech back in July. At the time, the euro was sitting near its all-time high around $1.59. Nobody was foolish enough to suggest it could crash.
But Jack said 1) the bottom is near for the U.S. dollar, and 2) the European Central Bank won't survive a big test.
The crowd – a room full of "gold bugs" – didn't want to hear the dollar was going to soar. But Jack called it like he saw it.
Jack was exactly right. The U.S. dollar has soared (the dollar index has risen from around 72 in July to around 81 today). And the euro has crashed down to $1.36 – a 14% percent fall since July.
Jack is the only man I know who called it right, at exactly the right time. (We called the euro's demise here in DailyWealth just a few days later.)
I've known Jack since we worked 15 feet away from each other for a few years at firm specializing in international investing. That was 15 years ago. Jack is a smart, uncompromising currency trader who knows his financial history and knows the markets.
In his speech, Jack's case for the dollar was right: The dollar had been in a seven-year bear market and was 34% undervalued against the euro. Also, the dollar had rallied during four of the last five recessions. Lastly, sentiment was extremely negative toward the U.S. dollar – everyone who wanted to sell had already sold.
Jack agrees with the late Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman's take on the euro... "Sooner or later, when the global economy hits a real bump, Europe's internal contradictions will tear [the euro] apart."
Europe has too many divergent interests... As Jack explained, Spain's crashing housing market has nothing to do with Ireland's economy. And about Italy, Greece, and Portugal, he asked, "Tell me again why their bond yields should match Germany?"
As the ultimate sign of a top in the euro's bull run, the Financial Times' Person of the Year was none other than Jean-Claude Trichet... the head of Europe's central bank!
In July, Jack said the dollar could surprise on the upside, and rising one-size-fits-all tensions could hurt the euro. He nailed it... So what now?
When it comes to currency trades, Jack looks for the same three things we look for in DailyWealth: "cheap, hated, uptrend."
Even with the U.S. dollar's extraordinary recent rise, it's still cheap versus the euro.
The dollar is still hated (though not as hated as it was back in July).
And most importantly, we have an uptrend in the dollar now. Trends in currencies matter more than in just about any other investment... Once the trend begins, it's hard to derail it.
The trend is up in the dollar now. And the trend is down in the euro. The trade has made Jack's subscribers and DailyWealth readers a lot of money so far. And the trade is still on...
Good investing,
Steve
P.S. Jack Crooks has traded this move in the dollar masterfully in the last few weeks in his trading service, World Currency Options Alert. If you're interested in trading currencies, you ought to consider what he's up to now: click here.
Editor's note: Steve Sjuggerud is a regular contributor to DailyWealth, a free investment newsletter focused on the world's best contrarian opportunities. We write with a simple belief in mind: You don't have to take big risks to make big money with your investments.
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