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A Dramatic Signal the Crisis Has Passed
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
January 25, 2008


British bankers usually take care of each other...

They don't charge each other much of a premium in interest. For example, in the first half of 2007, the British set the bank-to-bank interest rate at just 0.11 percentage points over the fed-funds rate. It was practically pegged at this level... It hardly fluctuated.

Then August arrived. Fear set in. Things got so bad, bankers wouldn't lend to each other. They didn't trust each other's promises to pay.
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Over the summer, the British Bankers Association – the old banking "gentleman's club" – raised the London Interbank Rate (LIBOR) to nearly a full percentage point above the fed-funds rate. It was a sign of distrust and panic. Banks didn't want to lend to each other. And if they did, they only did so at a high interest rate.

Now the fear has completely subsided.

Recently, the LIBOR rate actually fell below the fed-funds rate (which hasn't happened since 2004).

This is a dramatic signal that bankers trust each other again... that they'll lend money to each other again at favorable rates... and most importantly, that the liquidity crisis is over.

I'm not kidding. Today, even with what felt like panic this week, the LIBOR rate is still below the fed-funds rate.

So the liquidity crisis is over.

Let me be careful with my words here... The subprime mess isn't over. And the housing crisis isn't over. More finance and housing companies with too much debt to survive will go under.

But please understand, the super-dangerous crisis – the liquidity crisis – is over. A liquidity crisis is what we saw in the Great Depression... and it's what Japan saw in the 1990s. When banks won't lend, the wheels of commerce stop.

Now banks are willing to lend again. That's a good sign.

But the question for housing and finance stocks is, has the worst passed? Because if you're a long-time reader of mine, you know that the Secret to 1,000% Gains is to buy when things go from "bad" to "less bad." That's when you make the most money.

We can't know the future. We have many signs that this could be the bottom in housing and finance stocks... But I believe we'll need to see the headlines on housing stocks die down before the big uptrend kicks in.

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Here's my current thinking: Plan on the housing crisis lingering for years. But also plan on making triple-digit returns from housing stocks before the clouds lift.

If you play it smarter than I did last year, you'll wait until the headlines on housing stocks fade... and you'll wait for the big uptrend to kick in.

The housing and subprime crises will be with us a bit longer... But the worst crisis of all, the bankers' crisis – the "liquidity" crisis – is over. This is the first sign things are going from bad to less bad, so we should see some big opportunities soon...

Good investing,

Steve

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THE BOTTOM IS IN PLACE FOR HOMEBUILDERS

While homebuilder investors are having their patience tested right now, homebuilder traders made a fortune this week...

The traders I'm talking about are the folks who listen to our colleague Jeff Clark. Just last week, Jeff recommended S&A Short Report readers take a leveraged position in America's largest homebuilder, D.R. Horton. Despite the soggy general market, homebuilders are in full rally mode right now... and Jeff's readers closed the position yesterday for nearly a 150% gain.

Sure, the homebuilding sector has teased investors with several up and down shakeouts in the past several months, but this week's violent spike up – while the market spiked down – looks like the bottom is in place for homebuilders.

Horton Inc. D R

The too-tight-to-call battle for global sales leadership between General Motors Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp. could rage for years and be settled in China, Russia, India and other emerging markets where the auto industry sees its greatest growth potential.

On Wednesday, after reigning for 76 years as the world's largest automaker, GM slipped into a virtual tie with Toyota after the biggest of Detroit's Big Three announced global sales of about 9.37 million vehicles in 2007, the same number Toyota announced Jan. 10.

Where there is no contest between the two is in profit. Toyota posted net profit of $13.9 billion in its most recent fiscal year, ended March 31, and GM lost $2 billion.

When GM reports year-end results for 2007 in a couple of weeks, analysts expect a record net loss because it wrote off nearly $39 billion in deferred tax assets in the third quarter.

– Chicago Tribune

Broward and Miami-Dade county home prices fell in December over a year ago.

The median price on existing single-family houses in Broward fell 10 percent to $329,800, according to new figures from the Florida Association of Realtors.
Miami-Dade's median house price fell 5 percent to $362,500.

In condos, the price declines were more pronounced, with Broward's median condo price falling 14 percent over last year to $171,800. Miami-Dade's median condo price fell 10 percent to $263,500.

Statewide, the median sales price for existing single-family homes last month was $208,900; a year ago, it was $239,900 for a 13 percent decrease, the Realtors group reported.
– Miami Herald

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