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Best Time in History for This Trade?
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
April 23, 2008

I don't know about you, but I'm not earning much interest at the bank these days...

Fortunately, an extraordinary "return-on-your-cash" alternative has come up in the last month...

It's not a new investment vehicle... It's an old asset, where the opportunity has never been this good. I crunched the numbers, and I discovered we now have the best opportunity to buy in the 50-year history of this asset.

Right now, my savings account pays me less than 3% interest. At that rate, $10,000 would earn you less than $300 in interest in the course of a year. Then, of course, you also have to factor in income taxes on that $300...

So after taxes, you'll pocket less than $200 on a $10,000 investment over a full year. It's abysmal. So what can you safely do? You could tie your money up for a longer period of time... But 10-year Treasury bonds are only paying about 3.7%. And again, after taxes, you're down to, well, not much. So what can you do?

You should consider buying tax-free municipal bonds.

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Right now, super safe, tax-free municipal bonds pay more interest than taxable treasury bonds. This is crazy.

Under "normal" circumstances, a tax-free investment should pay much less interest than a taxable one. For example, if you can earn taxable interest of 6%, then after income tax, you'd pocket about 4%. So if you could earn tax-free interest elsewhere, your "break even" interest rate would be about 4%. Said another way, interest of 6% taxable and 4% tax-free (at a 33% tax rate for this example) should be thought of as identical.

Interestingly, this is not the case at all today.

Thanks to the credit crunch, hedge funds sold their positions in municipal bonds about two months ago. Legendary fund manager Bill Gross started buying munis in March – by the billions. "When you can get a non-taxable security at the same rate as a basically taxable security, then you've got a bargain," Gross said.

Another legendary value investor – Wilbur Ross – also bought a billion dollars worth.

Despite this buying, the anomaly is still here. Tax-free municipal bonds still pay more interest than taxable Treasuries. At the bottom of the market last month, the spread was the widest in history. Take a look:

The big anomaly
The big anomaly

As I've told readers before, this anomaly always sorts itself out in one of two ways: 1) Either regular government bond prices must crash while municipal bonds stay flat. Or 2) Municipal bond prices must soar. Either way, you'll do extremely well by holding a portfolio of municipal bonds.

Municipal bonds are safe... The cumulative default rate on municipal bonds from 1970 to 2000 (the only numbers I have) was 0.04%. And that number is for all municipal bonds, not just the highest-rated, AAA ones.

Municipal bond prices fell recently. But the uptrend is back.

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You can invest extremely safely in boring municipal bond funds from companies like Vanguard. Or you can significantly increase your tax-free yields by going with a closed-end municipal bond fund. I currently recommend two municipal bond funds to True Wealth subscribers. You can sort through a list of them at www.etfconnect.com.

As I've said to True Wealth readers... between the tax-free interest and the capital gains I expect as the anomaly sorts itself out, you should be able to pick up double-digit total returns here over 12 months. Safe, double-digit annual returns on your cash, tax-free, is hard to beat.

Good investing,

Steve

P.S. You can learn more about my top two fund ideas with a subscription to True Wealth. To learn more about joining up, click here. (The tax-free interest you earn this year will easily pay for the subscription!)

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ALL ROADS LEAD TO ATHABASCA

In his popular Wednesday "Commodity Q&A" our colleague Matt Badiali covers why "All Roads Lead to Athabasca"... Why problems for America's foreign crude oil suppliers are hugely bullish for Canada's tar-sand deposits.

The latest news to hit the oil market: The Financial Times reports that Nigeria, Africa's largest producer and America's third-largest foreign oil supplier, may see its oil production decline by one third over the next seven years. Predictions like this aren't known for their precision, but the situation in Nigeria underscores a huge trend: The countries supplying America with oil are suffering production declines.

Whether it's caused by Nigerian militants, inept management in Mexico, or a dangerous maniac in Venezuela, the bottom line is this: All terrorist attacks in the Middle East, all pipeline attacks in Nigeria, all missteps in the management of Cantarell, and all blustery speeches from Hugo Chavez lead down one road... a bullish road for Canada's tar sands.

Canada is next door to the world's most powerful nation, it has a well-established system of property rights, and it's home to about a trillion barrels of oil. Best of all, it's full of nice people. It's also full of uptrends just like the one in EnCana, one of Canada's largest landowners. The oil and gas producer is up 63% in the last year. Click here to read Matt's full discussion.

EnCana Corp.


Guillermo Najera, a 42-year-old machine operator at Mexican state-controlled oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, gets paid to do nothing all day. Pemex management can't fire the union worker or transfer him from the ammonia plant in Ciudad Camargo, where he still shows up for work even though the plant stopped production in 2002.

"We don't have anything else to do except keep our areas clean," Najera says as he and dozens of other idle workers enter the gates of the plant for the 7 a.m. shift. "I want to go back to work."

Pemex's lack of control over its 110,000 union workers is just one symptom of a deeper malaise at Mexico's largest company. Pemex, which produces more crude oil every year than Exxon Mobil Corp., suffers from too little investment, high taxes, laws that forbid competition, corruption and corroding and exploding pipelines.

The Pemex crisis that critics have warned about for the past decade has arrived: Production at the company's largest oil field, Cantarell, fell 18 percent last year, and Pemex has little petroleum lined up to replace it.

Bloomberg

Mexico faces its fourth straight year of declining oil production as the country's largest field by output heads into retirement, pressuring the state oil company to make new discoveries.

Analysts and industry experts say Mexican output will slip again this year after dropping 5.3% in 2007. This will curb global oil supplies at a time of rising demand and threaten government revenue, of which about a third comes from oil.

Last year, Mexico slipped to third place among foreign crude suppliers to the U.S., behind Canada and Saudi Arabia. Mexico's oil exports, 80% of which land at U.S. ports, slipped by 6% in 2007.
– Wall Street Journal

$375,000 Payout thanks to "S-1" Gov't Approval

An office clerk from Seattle recently made $375,000 on a little-known penny stock with "S-1" Government approval.

Fortune magazine says that "It's easier to make huge percentage gains on [these] penny stocks." What are they, and how does the Government find them?

Click here for the full details.

DailyWealth is Dr. Steve Sjuggerud's FREE daily e-Letter

To receive Steve's best investment ideas each month, try a no-risk trial subscription to his monthly advisory, True Wealth.

Get started now.

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3 Months From Today...

The skies of Western Canada will be swarming with executive jets and news helicopters. Why?

Well, part of the story was told on a recent episode of "60 Minutes." What the television show didn't tell you, however, is how to make an absolute fortune from this media circus over the next few months.

To read the full story, click here...

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