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How to Get an 83% Discount on a Rare Silver Coin
By Tom Dyson
April 21, 2008

Van Simmons started collecting rare coins when he was 12 years old...

Back then, coin collecting was a tough business. You had to be an expert, or you'd get ripped off.

The old coin market was a bit like the diamond industry is today. To value a diamond, you have to be an expert with a magnifying glass. You have to know about flaws and colors and cuts and clarity. Then you have to know everything there is to know about history and prices. Only then do you have any idea what a stone is worth.

The rare-coin market used to be the same way. You needed a magnifying glass and 30 years experience to judge the value of a coin. Professionals had a large advantage over nonprofessionals. Mainstream investors stayed away from the rare-coin market. They thought the market was a fraud.

Then Van Simmons came along. In 1986, Van co-founded a business called PCGS or the Professional Coin Grading Service. This service revolutionized the coin industry. It made coin prices transparent.

Van hired rare-coin experts and asked them to grade billions of dollars worth of coins. After they had graded the coins, the experts sealed them in airtight plastic wallets. The plastic wallet acted like a guarantee of authenticity. Novice investors could trade coins with other novice investors without knowing anything about coin grading. PCGS became a very successful business... and today it's still the top grading service in the world. (As an aside, I hear PCGS has figured out a way to grade and label diamonds. Maybe we will be able to invest in diamonds soon too?)

Outside coins, Van also collects pocketknives, Winchester and Colt antique firearms, American Indian memorabilia, antique fly-fishing rods, marbles, classic surfboards, old skateboards, and much more. Van has a library in his house. He packs its shelves with price guides for collectible objects.

He's too humble to say it, but he's certainly one of the most important people in the collectibles business.

I called Van today and asked him for a coin recommendation. I told him I wanted something affordable. "That's easy," said Van. "Morgan Dollars are a great deal. I just bought some for my kids actually..."

The Morgan Dollar is a silver one-dollar coin. The U.S. minted Morgan Dollars between 1878 and 1904... and in 1921 for one year. The coin contains 0.77 ounces of silver.

In 2003, when silver was $4 an ounce, you could have bought a common-date Morgan dollar for $125 in mint condition (MS65).

Today, silver is around $18 an ounce, 350% higher, yet you can buy the same mint-condition Morgan Dollar for only $170. To give you an idea how much these coins could be worth in the future, in 1985, Van Simmons paid $1,000 for one of these. Now, you can buy at an 83% discount to that price.

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Rare coins do not move in tandem with gold and silver prices. In the last bull market, the silver price peaked in 1980, but the Morgan Dollar didn't peak until 1985. I don't know when the next bull market in rare coins is going to start, but I'm sure it's going to take the price of the Morgan Dollar far above $1,000 when it comes.

Besides, if Van Simmons is buying them for his kids, then they're good enough for my portfolio...

Good investing,

Tom Dyson

Editor's note: Tom Dyson is a regular contributor to DailyWealth, a free investment newsletter focused on the world's best contrarian opportunities. We write with a simple belief in mind: You don't have to take big risks to make big money with your investments.

Sign up today to read more investment ideas from Tom Dyson.

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A glut of foreclosed homes helped prompt a 26 percent plunge in California home prices in March, highlighting a trend that experts said is likely to continue as low, introductory interest rates expire for people who bought near the height of the housing boom.

More than 38 percent of California homes sold in March had been foreclosed at some point during the previous year, DataQuick Information Systems said in its survey released Thursday.

The state's median home price was $358,000 last month, down from $484,000 in March 2007, when the market peaked, DataQuick said.

– Associated Press

Americans feeling the pain of record gasoline prices now face the likelihood of another fuel shock, from natural gas.

Prices in the U.S. have risen 93% since late August as power-hungry nations like South Korea and Japan compete in a global natural-gas market that scarcely existed a half-decade ago. Still, U.S. prices are as low as half the level of some overseas markets, suggesting they have much further to rise.

On Thursday a report by the Barclays Capital unit of Barclays PLC warned that, partly because of rising natural-gas prices, the U.S. could start to see spikes in electricity costs in as little as a year. "Power is at the cusp of its next boom cycle," analysts said. "When power markets tighten, prices do not notch up, they skyrocket."

What's new is the global price competition. Prior to 2003, gas was primarily a regional commodity, consumed near where it was produced and transported by pipelines. Often, it would be simply burned off as waste at oil wells, since transportation was so difficult.

That changed with development of cheaper methods for supercooling and transporting the fuel across the ocean in liquefied form, which requires 1/600th the space.
– Wall Street Journal

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