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Equity Steak
By Dan Ferris
September 18, 2007

I like you.

You and I are birds of a feather... I feel privileged to be able to write to you. I'm grateful for the attention you give to my ideas and advice. And given the smallish size of the flock, I hope we'll continue to stick together.

So, please don't take the following personally. I'm only making a point...

But let's face it... As an investor, you just aren't that important.

For starters, you're an outsider. Sure, the stock you buy means you own a piece of the company. But let's be realistic. You have no idea what's going on in its hallways, meeting rooms, and corner offices minute by minute, day by day. Management could be swinging from the chandeliers. (How do you know there aren't any chandeliers?)

Not only are you an outsider, you're passive, too. You get to vote your shares, but otherwise, management doesn't want to know and certainly doesn't really care what you think. In management's view, you, the shareholder, are best neither seen nor heard.

And while you may have the potential to vote with the majority, wielding whatever power you possess, you are the tiniest minority of all: the individual shareholder. You are a gnat on the windshield of the companies in your portfolio.

Putting a more technical face on it, the publicly traded common equity we typically discuss (and discuss and discuss...) represents a residual claim on earnings and assets.

Note the word residual, as in residue. You know what residue is. It's the stuff you have a bear of a time cleaning off the bottom of the pan. After you take the meat out and use the drippings and scrapings to make the sauce, there's a little bit of stuff stuck to the bottom.

That's the residue.

In other words, that's the equity. Not the meat, or the drippings, or the scrapings. The residue. The stuff nobody wants.

Well, if the equity is the residue, then what are the steak and the sauce? What comes before equity? The answer, it turns out, is "just about everything and everyone." The following list shows you the order of claims on a corporation's assets in the event of liquidation. Note the position of the common-equity holder. Now that's what I call residue.

1) Secured creditors paid when pledged property is sold or refinanced, then
2) Unpaid wages, then
3) Taxes, then
4) Trade creditors, then
5) Unsecured debt holders, then
6) Subordinated unsecured debt holders, then
7) Preferred stockholders, and finally, after all these other claims are met,
8) Common stockholders get whatever is left.

You are eighth in a line of eight. Every common-equity holder should see this list, study it, and remember it forever. This list of priorities is why I've often been attracted to stocks with little or no debt and way too much cash or other high-quality liquid assets.

And claims on earnings are an even wispier notion than claims on "U.S. 801(k) Plans" better than 401(k)s and IRAs?

These secret "801(k) Plans"—which have no age, income, or employment requirements—pay up to 1,000% – 2,000% more than 401(k)s or IRAs.

But it's unlikely you've ever heard about these special programs before: The U.S. government doesn't allow them to be advertised to the general public.

Click here to find out more. ssets. Before a corporation can pay common dividends – if it even wants to – it has to pay all of its interest payments and other expenses.

Makes you appreciate a world-class dividend payer like ExxonMobil that much more.

Once you start thinking about yourself as a subordinated unsecured creditor, you're really just making sure you'll get paid.

That's why we recommended Alexander & Baldwin a few years ago in my advisory Extreme Value. Alexander & Baldwin owns 90,000 acres of raw land in Hawaii. At the time we bought, you got the land at a discount, and its business operations for free.

We recommended American Real Estate Partners for similar reasons. It was selling for 75% of book value a few years ago. It was easily worth much more than book value. It was around $20 a share then. It's more than $110 a share now, and selling for about three times book value. Today, it owns even more undervalued assets. And it still has more cash than debt. It's a very safe stock to hang on to.

We analyzed the position of Borders from the same perspective and realized that its debt is secured in part by its inventory. Borders book inventory can be returned to the publisher at cost, so there's a firm bottom to its value. Not what you'd expect, given that today's $39.95 hardbacks will be in the bargain bin for $5 in a few months. Even if the worst happens at Borders, there'll still be some value for the shareholder. We made sure we'd get paid.

That's how a creditor thinks. We're not predicting earnings. We're not figuring out the next hot technology. We're not even worried about the business having some great competitive advantage. We're just looking at the business through the eyes of a subordinated unsecured creditor. That's how we get safety, and staying safe is how you keep yourself in a position to take advantage of the big gains that come from stocks like Alexander & Baldwin and American Real Estate Partners

If this were what you got every time you scraped the bottom of the pan, you'd be happy to let others eat the steak.

Good investing,

Dan Ferris

Editor's note: Dan Ferris is a regular contributor to DailyWealth, a free investment newsletter focused on the world's best contrarian opportunities. We write with a simple belief in mind: You don't have to take big risks to make big money with your investments.

Sign up today to read more investment ideas from Dan Ferris.

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A PROBLEM WE'D ALL LIKE TO HAVE

China has too much money.

The country's $1.4 trillion in reserves and its citizens' $2.2 trillion in household savings are burning holes in their pockets.

The government has taken several actions to cool the seemingly unstoppable economy, including a recent interest-rate hike – the fifth of its kind.

Last month, the government allowed mainlanders to invest in the Hong Kong stock exchange. The market skyrocketed. In addition to presenting new investment opportunities to the Chinese, this move also allowed them to buy the same Shanghai-listed stocks for large discounts on the Hong Kong exchange. Many of the H-shares (Hong Kong listings for Shanghai stocks) traded at discounts as high as 52%.

Don't expect China's spending to stop in Hong Kong. As China further opens its investment borders, expect the country's enormous buying power to move markets in the future.

Hong Kong iShares

-Brian Hunt

Former Royal Dutch Shell chairman and geologist Ron Oxburgh forecast oil prices of $150 a barrel in the years ahead as it gets more expensive to drill for it. "We can probably go on extracting oil from the ground for a very long time, but it is going to get very expensive indeed," Oxburgh said in an interview in The Independent published Sunday. "And once you see oil prices in excess of $100 or $150 a barrel, the alternatives simply become more attractive on price grounds if on no others." He warned the oil industry could be "sleepwalking into a crisis," with peak oil possible within the next 20 years.

-MarketWatch

We have seen a very recent significant slowdown in U.S. oil-demand growth. Also, jet-fuel demand historically has been a leading or coincident indicator for the economy, and jet-fuel demand has turned negative. That is not an economic forecast. But when jet-fuel demand is really soft, you have got to worry about whether something's going on with the economy.

-Mike Rothman, senior managing director of ISI Group, as quoted in Barron's

Mr Greenspan said he would expect "as a minimum, large single-digit" percentage declines in U.S. house prices from peak to trough and added that he would not be surprised if the fall was "in double digits".

Mr Greenspan said house prices were probably already down about 2-3 per cent from their peak on a national level.

However, he cautioned that it was very difficult to predict how large the ultimate decline would be.

- Financial Times

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