Be Very Careful Investing – and Living – Here...
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
October 30, 2007
You'd be sitting on 250%+ returns today if you'd invested in the Templeton Russia Fund (TRF) starting in early 2003.
Even better, commodity prices have soared in that time, and Russia has some of the world's largest oil, mineral, and timber reserves. So Russia's future looks just great, as far as revenues are concerned.
But I wouldn't invest in Russia today. And if you are considering it, be very, very careful...
"As for my own safety in Russia, I don't feel safe," Garry Kasparov told us in New Orleans last week. Kasparov is doing the unthinkable... He recently announced he's running for president in Russia against Vladimir Putin.
Putin, if you're not aware, has no opposition. "This regime has no allergy to blood," Kasparov said, alluding to the surprising number of dissenters that have ended up dead.
When Brian Hunt, our editor-in-chief, asked how he deals with this, he said: "I avoid consuming food that's been prepared by people I don't know... I don't go out at night with people I don't know... And I have bodyguards in my country."
So why is he risking his life? To make a better future for his countrymen. "One man with courage makes a majority," he said. Kasparov is showing extraordinary courage right now.
"Putin has demolished democratic ideals," he told us. "In the U.S.A., you have problems forming a third party. Well, in Russia, we have those same problems with forming a second party," he joked. "We're not fighting to win elections in Russia, we're just fighting to have elections."
Kasparov described how Putin is closer to Iran's Ahmadinejad than American and European leaders. "For Western leaders to recognize Putin as an equal is devastating to the cause of freedom. It gives Putin credibility, which he doesn't deserve."
Again, trying to make a serious point while keeping things light, Kasparov said, "In Russia, we have a bizarre combination of Adam Smith and Karl Marx at work... State expenses are nationalized, but state profits are privatized."
I met Kasparov last week.
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Dr. Steve Sjuggerud with Garry Kasparov |
Kasparov, if you're not familiar, became the world's youngest-ever chess champion in 1985. He was 22 years old. He was ranked the No. 1 chess player in the world for 20 years. He retired from competitive chess in 2005 and is now the highest-profile critic of Vladimir Putin's regime.
Kasparov is approaching the election like a chess match with his life on the line. He is hoping his international fame will help keep him from "permanently disappearing" like other dissenters.
We wish him luck in stopping Russia's slide away from democracy. You can't change the world if you don't try. Kasparov kept talking about "having the courage to fail." With his willingness to risk his life, he sure has that courage...
We wish you the best, Mr. Kasparov.
Until something or someone, can stop Russia's slide away from democracy, we have no interest in investing in there.
Good investing,
Steve
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