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The Most Dangerous Highway In Canada
By Tom Dyson
June 25, 2007

"He's not slowing down," cried the coach driver. "He's not slowing down!"

Moments later, a semi truck slammed into the side of his coach at full speed, sending it spinning down the highway...

On a cool spring evening in May 2005, a minor traffic accident on the highway between Fort McMurray and Edmonton, Alberta, had blocked up the southbound traffic. Apparently, the driver had gotten tired of waiting and had decided to turn his bus around and look for a different route south.

But the highway was only two lanes wide. As the driver made the turn, the back wheels became stuck in a ditch at the edge of the road and snared the bus. While the driver called for a tow truck, his passengers – tar-sand workers on their way to Edmonton for a week off – got off the bus and stood by the side of the road smoking cigarettes and cursing their luck.

That's when the truck came charging down the highway, unable to see the row of taillights in the traffic jam.

"I looked up to see the semi coming. It just hit us. Everybody went flying everywhere. I couldn't believe what was happening," said one of the workers. "It just T-boned."

The impact pinned many of the onlookers under the bus, killing four workers and injuring dozens more.

The next day, at sunrise, I traveled that same dark highway – in the opposite direction – on my way to the Athabasca Tar Sands...

The Canadian tar sands is a gargantuan oil deposit in Western Canada. They say it holds 1 trillion barrels of oil, although the Canadian Energy Research Institute says only 175 billion barrels are actually recoverable with today's technology. At the current rate of extraction, 175 billion barrels is enough oil to last for another 480 years.

Unlike the conventional oil deposits in the Middle East, where the oil is pumped out as a liquid, in Canada, the oil is trapped in sand. So they dig up the sand using gigantic shovels, move it with some of the largest dump trucks on the planet, and heat it with steam to extract the oil.

It's not as cheap to produce oil from the tar sands as it is to pump it from conventional deposits. But as long as the international price for crude oil is more than $40 a barrel, it's profitable. Besides, Canada is a friendly country. All the other huge oil deposits that the United States relies on lie in distant, unstable countries such as Nigeria, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia.

Oil companies have been mining the Canadian tar sands since the 1970s. But the boom really started cooking in 2004, when oil jumped above $40 following the invasion of Iraq. Fort McMurray is the town at the center of the oil-sand region. By 2005, the narrow, dark highway between Fort McMurray and Edmonton had become so busy with huge mining trucks carrying equipment and buses carrying tar-sands workers, that while I was there, the press dubbed it:

The most dangerous highway in Canada.

I had gone to the Canadian tar sands that day to see this incredible boom with my own eyes. In 2003, the oil sands business generated $11 billion in revenue. Last year, total revenues exceeded $22 billion. I met 23-year-old high-school dropouts earning $150,000 a year welding pipes together and drifters earning $90,000 a year driving dump trucks.

I checked out accommodation costs. London has the highest rent of any big city in the world. But rent in this small frontier town, deep in the western Canadian wilderness, was even higher. In 2005, you would have paid $1,000 a month to rent a small bedroom in a shared house with three other miners.

Two years later, with oil prices at more than $60 a barrel, business in the Canadian tar sands is absolutely booming. According to Oil and Gas Investor, oil companies are planning to invest more than $125 billion on new oil-sands projects over the next 15 years.

Check out this list of projects coming soon to the tar sands:

Company
Amount Invested
Expected First Production

CNOOC

$150 million

2007

UTS

$125 million

2008

Statoil

$2,200 million

2009

Petro-Canada

$300 million

2010

Teck Cominco

$250 million 

2010

Teck Cominco

$220 million 

2010

KNOC

$310 million

2010

Sinopec

$149.7 million

2011

Total SA

$1,667 million

2011

Enerplus

$182.5 million

2011

Suncor

$107.5 million

2017

Source: Oil and Gas Investor

Unfortunately, if you're looking to make huge returns in tar sands, I'd say you're about five years late to the party. The boom has been widely reported, and the easy money is long gone. The stocks of Suncor, Shell Canada and the Oil Sands Trust – the big oil-sand producers – are all up hundreds of percent and trade at multiples that already account for the huge growth that lies ahead.

There is a solution. The major oil companies plan to quadruple their production over the next decade or so. They are going to need lots of help in order to pull this off. My strategy: Buy the companies that provide the pipelines, the manpower, the natural gas supplies (for separating the oil from the sand), the heavy equipment, the clean-up services, and the accommodation.

Good investing,

Tom

Editor's note: Tom Dyson is a regular contributor to DailyWealth, a free investment newsletter focused on the world's best contrarian opportunities. We write with a simple belief in mind: You don't have to take big risks to make big money with your investments.

Sign up today to read more investment ideas from Tom Dyson.

 

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NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

BHP Billiton (BHP)... diversified mining
Ivanhoe Mines (IVN)... copper and gold mining
Martin Marietta (MLM)... sand and gravel mining
General Electric (GE)... conglomerate
Deere (DE)... farm equipment
CF Industries (CF)... farm chemicals
Agrium (AGU)... farm chemicals
Terra Industries (TRA)... farm chemicals
AGCO Corp. (AG)... farm equipment
Lindsay Corp. (LNN)... farm equipment
Monsanto (MON)... farm chemicals and seeds
Tidewater (TDW)... oil services
Grey Wolf (GW)... oil services
Unit Corp (UNT)... oil services
National-Oilwell Varco (NOV)... oil rigs
Transocean (RIG)... deepwater oil drilling
Dawson Geophysical (DWSN)... oil services
Trico Marine Service (TRMA)... oil services
iShares Canada (EWC)... commodity-driven economy
iShares Australia (EWA)... commodity-driven economy
iShares Brazil (EWZ)... commodity-driven economy
Nokia (NOK)... flourishing in the telecom boom
America Movil (AMX)... flourishing in the telecom boom
China Mobile (CHL)... flourishing in the telecom boom

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Hovnanian (HOV)... homebuilder
Pulte Homes (PHM)... homebuilder
Panera Bread (PNRA)... restaurants
Journal Register (JRC)... newspapers
Starbucks (SBUX)... coffee shops
Healthcare Realty (HR)... healthcare REIT
Select Comfort (SCSS)... beds
VeraSun Energy (VSE)... ethanol

-Brian Hunt

World oil demand is growing twice as fast as a year ago, straining the petroleum industry's ability to keep up with global needs and likely resulting in higher and more-volatile prices for some time to come.

On a short-term basis, many industry specialists see prices rising in the second half of the year unless the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries relents from its recent tough stance and starts pumping more crude oil very soon, and unless refiners can churn out more products such as gasoline and diesel. Longer term, the trends suggest the growing global economy has adapted to the doubling of oil prices over the past three years, bolstering demand and paving the way for higher prices in coming years.

"Asia's thirst for oil juxtaposed against its empty gas tank has created a new global sucking sound, one which implies structurally higher world oil prices over the medium term, at least," Joseph Quinlan, chief market strategist at Bank of America, said in a report this week.

Asia is likely to eclipse North America as the largest oil consumer next year, he said.

-Wall Street Journal

Oil and gas producers around the globe are expected to raise spending on exploration and production by 13 percent this year over 2006 levels, up from a previous forecast for a 9 percent increase, Lehman Brothers said on Monday.

In its mid-year update to their survey of 350 companies, Lehman analysts said the 2007 increase is largely expected to come outside the United States and Canada, with spending in the international markets likely to rise by 20 percent from the 13 percent increase forecast in December.

-Reuters

Three-year stock price gain of Transocean, the world's largest offshore oil drilling company: +281%

Three-year stock price gain of National-Oilwell Varco, America's largest producer of drilling equipment: +282%

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