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Iowans Love to Gamble
By Peter L. Bernstein
July 21, 2007

Gambling has held human beings in thrall for millennia. It has been engaged in everywhere, from the dregs of society to the most respectable circles.

Pontius Pilate's soldiers cast lots for Christ's robe as He suffered on the cross. The Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius was regularly accompanied by his personal croupier.

The Earl of Sandwich invented the snack that bears his name so that he could avoid leaving the gaming table in order to eat. George Washington hosted games in his tent during the American Revolution.

Gambling is synonymous with the Wild West. And "Luck Be a Lady Tonight" is one of the most memorable numbers in Guys and Dolls, a musical about a compulsive gambler and his floating crap game.

The earliest-known form of gambling was a kind of dice game played with what was known as an astragalus, or knuckle-bone. This early ancestor of today's dice was a squarish bone taken from the ankles of sheep or deer, solid and without marrow, and so hard as to be virtually indestructible.

Astragali have surfaced in archeological digs in many parts of the world. Egyptian tomb paintings picture games played with astragali dating from 3,500 BC, and Greek vases show young men tossing the bones into a circle. Although Egypt punished compulsive gamblers by forcing them to hone stones for the pyramids, excavations show that the pharaohs were not above using loaded dice in their own games.

Craps, an American invention, derives from various dice games brought into Europe via the Crusades. Those games were generally referred to as "hazard," from al zahr, the Arabic word for dice.

Card games developed in Asia from ancient forms of fortune-telling, but they did not become popular in Europe until the invention of printing. Cards originally were large and square, with no identifying figures or pips in the corners. Court cards were printed with only one head instead of double-headed, which meant that players often had to identify them from the feet – turning the cards around would reveal a holding of court cards.

Square corners made cheating easy for players who could turn down a tiny part of the corner to identify cards in the deck later on. Double-headed court cards and cards with rounded corners came into use only in the nineteenth century.

Like craps, poker is an American variation on an older form – the game is only about 150 years old. David Hayano has described poker as "Secret ploys, monumental deceptions, calculated strategies, and fervent beliefs [with] deep, invisible structures... A game to experience rather than to observe."

According to Hayano, about forty million Americans play poker regularly, all confident of their ability to outwit their opponents.

The most addictive forms of gambling seem to be the pure games of chance played at the casinos that are now spreading like wildfire through once staid American communities.

An article in The New York Times of September 25, 1995, datelined Davenport, Iowa, reports that gambling is the fastest-growing industry in the United States, "a $40 billion business that draws more customers than baseball parks or movie theaters."

The Times cites a University of Illinois professor who estimates that state governments pay three dollars in costs to social agencies and the criminal justice system for every dollar of revenue they take in from the casinos – a calculus that Adam Smith might have predicted.

Iowa, for example, which did not even have a lottery until 1985, had ten big casinos by 1995, plus a horse track and a dog track with 24-hour slot machines.

The article states that "nearly nine out of ten Iowans say they gamble," with 5.4% of them reporting that they have a gambling problem, up from 1.7% five years earlier. This in a state where a Catholic priest went to jail in the 1970s on charges of running a bingo game.

Al zahr in its purest form is apparently still with us.

Good investing,

Peter L. Bernstein

Excerpted with permission of the publisher John Wiley & Sons, Inc. from Against The Gods The Remarkable Story of Risk. Copyright (c) 1998 by Peter L. Bernstein.  This book is available at all bookstores, online booksellers and from the Wiley web site at www.wiley.com, or call 1-800-225-5945. Editor's note: pbernstein is a regular contributor to DailyWealth, a free investment newsletter focused on the world's best contrarian opportunities. We write with a simple belief in mind: You don't have to take big risks to make big money with your investments.

Sign up today to read more investment ideas from pbernstein.

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82%

Past 52-week return of the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China Fund, making it the top-performing ETF for the time period.

The fund is made up of the largest companies in China, such as PetroChina (oil) and China Mobile (telecom).

A Great Place For Entrepreneurs
By Tom Dyson
July 20, 2007

Stock prices of big Midwest companies are rising. Farmland prices have risen four years in a row. How long before Midwest property prices start rising too?

Read On...

The World's Cheapest Property
By Tom Dyson
July 19, 2007

Recently, I stumbled onto the world's cheapest real estate... I call it the Real Estate Utopia.

Read On...

Get Ready For 400% Gains
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
July 18
, 2007

I'm watching. I'm waiting. The time will be here soon... The last time we saw this setup, you'd have made 400% on your money in just 16 months...

Read On...

How to Avoid a Painful Investment Mistake
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
July 17, 2007

Would you immediately advertise that you are willing to sell for $300,000? Of course, you wouldn't... But I think that many subscribers recently did the equivalent of this in the stock market last week.

Read On...

Commercial Real Estate Is Starting to Crack
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
July 16, 2007

Today, we are in the opposite place. Unbelievably, REITs now pay dividends that are smaller than Treasury bond yields. Looking back over history, when this happened, you couldn't make any money in REITs.

Read On...

CHINA WANTS 'EM, BHP HAS 'EM

BHP Billiton is the biggest commodity company in the world. Its market value (when you add together it's Australian and UK-listed shares) is roughly $200 billion. It's so big, it is larger than the next two mining giants combined (which are Rio Tinto and True Wealth pick Anglo American).

BHP sales in 2005:

Iron Ore

24.6%

Petroleum

20.6%

Aluminum

17.6%

Base Metals

15.3%

Energy and Coal

10.3%

Stainless Steel materials

9%

Diamonds

2.6%

BHP is the world leader in many commodities. Based in Australia, it's on China's doorstep in a safe country. In short, BHP Billiton is the safest and best way to play the boom in China and commodities over the next decade. We think it could be good for hundreds of percent returns.

China wants 'em, BHP has 'em

- Tom Dyson

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