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Editor's note: If you'd like to learn more about investing in Japanese real estate, you can also read Steve's essay, Six Reasons Why Japanese Real Estate Will Soar.
Investing in Japanese Real Estate: Just Hit The Ground in Tokyo
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
January 23, 2007
Greetings from Japan... where things are wacky...
They drive on the left like the Brits, but they use American plugs for electronics... School kids wear school uniforms like the Brits, only the girls' skirts are incredibly short... Parents? Where are you?
And if that's not confusing... try getting around town when you can't read the language. Fortunately, just enough people speak English and just enough signs are written in English, that you can get by in the city.
I've just landed and met up with my younger brother, Mike. He's an attorney who just moved here. Mike is helping me make sense of the wackiness. For example:
"Mike, what's the deal with all the surgical masks? It seems about one in 20 people wear them. Are people worried about noxious fumes on the streets or SARS or something?"
"I asked my assistant the same question," he said. "Apparently, it's out of courtesy. They've got colds. I actually appreciate it now. You're packed in so tight on the subway, you don't want people coughing in your face."
So many things hit you that are different from the States, I could go on... but DailyWealth isn't a travelogue. We're here to share with you the best ways to make money, safely. And that's what's brought me to Japan...
Over the next few days, I will see a few dozen companies and investment experts in Japan. I will be seeing the biggest names in Japanese real estate because I believe that Japanese real estate might just be an extraordinary opportunity.
You see, after 15 straight years of falling, real estate prices are now down by about 85%. Commercial real estate prices are particularly low. But, even better, Japanese real estate prices in the last year or two have started to tick higher. It's just what we like to see – the classic True Wealth "buy" conditions. The fielders are asleep. It's time to take a look.
In America, the conventional wisdom is, "You can't go wrong in real estate." In Japan, after 15 years of falling prices, the conventional wisdom is the opposite: "You'll never make money in real estate."
As the chart here shows, Japanese real estate is now as cheap as it was in 1980, nearly 30 years ago. And the chart looks like what we want to see... a bottom and the beginning of an uptrend.
So I'm here to check it out.
I wrote a bit about investing in Japanese real estate last year, calling it the "15-year, one-way bet."
All of the conditions in place for a roaring bull market. The kerosene has been poured. We're just waiting for the match to get it started...
For example, it is expected that Japan's central bank will raise interest rates to 0.5% this year and leave them there for the year. That's not five percent – that's zero point five percent. Right now, 10-year government bond rates are less than 2%, and mortgage rates are two and change.
Can you imagine what would happen to real estate prices here if mortgage rates fell below 3%? Well, that's where they are now in Japan.
I think it's a one-way bet because, after 15 years of falling prices, I doubt Japan's central bank will stand in the way of soaring property market. It will want to help ignite asset prices, not hold them back. So I believe our upside is very high here, as we don't have to worry about high interest rates or a meddling central bank.
If you've been a long-time reader, you know that our investment mantra is that we like to buy when things appear cheap, hated or ignored, and in the beginning of an uptrend. It appears we have all three in Japan... so I'm here to check it out.
More to come in the coming days, as I learn more...
Best regards from Tokyo,
Steve |
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P.S. Every month, I tell subscribers to my True Wealth advisory about investment ideas like Japanese real estate, ideas they won't hear about anywhere else. My investment philosophy is simple: Buy assets of great value when no one else wants them, and sell them when others will pay any price. Click here to read about my favorite investment idea right now.
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