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Why I Won't Go Back to the
CES Next Year

By Tom Dyson

January 16, 2006

“All cars respond. North of the Strip, mid-Strip... whatever... we need you down at the convention center right now... We gotta get those people out of there.”

The radio dispatcher was desperate. Tens of thousands of people were spilling from the Las Vegas convention center. A big college football game was about to start. They all wanted to watch the game. They all needed a cab.

Luckily, I’d anticipated the crush and left the show 30 minutes early. My taxi was already half way back to the hotel when I heard the dispatcher’s plea.

Moments later, three ambulances sped passed us in the opposite direction and turned down Convention Center Drive...

“This is crazy,” said the cabbie.

The Consumer Entertainment Show is so big, it cripples the mighty city of Las Vegas for an entire week. This year was its 40th anniversary... a whopper.

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When we arrived at McCarran airport, we waited in a taxi queue so long it would have stretched out a mile if you’d taken away the snaking TensaBarrier tape lanes. I bet a thousand people were lined up waiting for a cab. Luckily, it moved fast. We only waited about 30 minutes.

Then, there was the line for taxis outside our hotel – the MGM Grand – every morning. Thursday morning, on our way back to the airport, we got caught up in the line. I had to tip a bellboy $10 to let us skip the line or we would’ve missed our flight back to Jacksonville.

Las Vegas has 136,000 hotel rooms. Every single one was booked up. The CES week is the only time of year you’ll pay more than the New Year’s Eve rate for a hotel room. Our room at the MGM Grand cost $500 a night, but many people couldn’t get a hotel room in Vegas at any price.

(Entrance to the CES is another $200... but in case my publisher gets worried about expenses, I managed to avoid both.)

I’m usually quite careful with my money... I’ll get the best bargains in supermarkets, drive around for the cheapest gas, and try not to eat food at airports. But after a few hours in Vegas, I start spreading money around like a celebrity.

Small expenses like food, drinks, and taxis feel inconsequential against the money I’m gambling with... so I start leaving huge tips, wasting food, and riding in taxis when a bus would have worked just as well. It’s why the jewelry shops do so well in casinos. Diamonds seem cheap when you’re playing cards for $10,000.

It’s also why Las Vegas tolerates 140,000 executives clogging up its streets once a year... they waste more money than any other demographic.

Personally, I came to the CES to look for investment ideas. Big mistake. The best investments are found where no one else is looking... like farmland in Iowa or a war zone in Africa. The CES – on the other hand – is a showcase of bad investments. Of the products introduced here, 99% won’t reach commercial success, and the ones that do probably come from large, overvalued technology companies anyway.

I did notice one thing: Many of the bigger companies had a little private area furnished with tables and chairs to one side of their exhibition. I asked the analyst beside me what they were used for. “So other companies can come and negotiate with you,” he told me. We were standing in front of a small electronics company. “For example, these guys would love to see a BestBuy scout come walking through the door. Here’s were they’d rush out a deal while the show's still on.”

The whole time I was at the show, we only saw empty tables. No one was negotiating.

We watched a group of Japanese businessmen having their pictures taken – one at a time – with a blonde glamour model. They clearly couldn’t wait to take the pictures home and show their friends...

“Everyone likes ogling their booth bait...” said the analyst. “But no one wants to take a seat at their negotiation table.”

I tried talking to a few exhibitors, but in the end I found myself playing video games, collecting free giveaways, and ogling booth bait... just like everyone else.

Good investing,

Tom

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CLARK FOR A STOCK MARKET CORRECTION

Jeff Clark says it’s finally time to get short.

One of the smartest traders in the country, Jeff says nearly every indicator he follows is calling for a broad shakeout in the stock market.

Along with his favorite technical indicators, Jeff cites record investor complacency and rampant bullishness from the analysts featured on CNBC as cause for alarm. As any good contrarian knows, when the crowd is bullish, it’s time to think bearish.

Jeff plans to make a killing from the market decline. You can get the full commentary in this issue of his free daily e-letter, The Growth Stock Wire. Click here to read it.

Corn continued its sharp rise in price [Friday], driven upward by demand for ethanol and an increasingly prosperous world eager for food.

For most of the past decade, farmers have received an average of $2.40 a bushel for their corn, and [Friday]’s price was among the highest of the past two decades.

The flash point came in the morning after the Agriculture Department released reports showing that corn exports and domestic demand are strong at a time when less corn than expected will be in storage at the start of autumn.

-Baltimore Sun

Commodity prices have soared since Friday morning, with the market turned upon its head following the release Friday of the shockingly small USDA crop reports for corn primarily, but for soybeans too and wheat also.

Simply put, we cannot recall having seen a report this shockingly bullish in our many years of watching commodity prices.

-Dennis Gartman
The Gartman Letter

Much higher feed costs are likely to eliminate the profit potential for pork producers in 2007. After three years of favorable returns, 2007 is expected to be close to breakeven, with concerns that even higher feed prices could drive the industry into losses.

Costs in 2007 are expected to be about 18 percent higher than in the two previous years with corn costs up an estimated 63 percent and soybean meal costs up a much more modest 4 percent. In addition, large uncertainty surrounds feed costs in 2007 as the corn and soybean sectors adjust to the rapid explosion in corn demand for fuel ethanol.

-FarmDoc
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