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The $4 Million Orlando Coin Heist
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

January 12, 2006

“Robbers in surgical masks pulled off a $4 million coin heist at knifepoint outside a coin dealer’s convention, getting away with gold, silver and a rare 1843 set of currency once owned by President Tyler, authorities said.” – AP News Story this week

Our good friend (and legend in the coin world) Van Simmons was in Orlando at the FUN show last week.

Van wasn’t there to have fun, though... FUN, in this case, refers to Florida United Numismatists, which was holding its annual convention. The conference was attended by 1,750 coin dealers.

I talked to Van yesterday. He told me that Saturday’s the holdup victim was a Minnesota dealer that he knows. It all happened in an instant...

The Minnesota man pulled his SUV up to the front of a hotel. A carload of robbers must have known he had coins on him. They drove up behind him and quickly pulled the violent heist. One thief held the coin guy at knifepoint, and two others rounded up the coins he had with him.

It turns out the coins that the thieves stole are extremely rare. They’ll be difficult to sell. Local Sheriff’s Deputy Carlos Padilla said in the AP story: “[I]t makes you wonder if the people that committed this crime even knew what they were getting.”

Van, who used to serve as a police officer in Long Beach, California, said while this type of thing is extremely uncommon, it is a risk of dealing in rare coins. The risk is mitigated as much as possible, as dealers have rooms at the convention with 24-hour security where they can store their coins during the show. And the shows themselves have security. But there is always a bit of risk.

Even before this incident, Van was wary... Van knew that last year in Orlando, a few dealers were robbed, though they were much smaller robberies.

And once this year, he happened to step into a cab and things just didn’t feel right. He happened to have some rare coins on him. The shady-looking cab driver didn’t turn on the meter, and then another shady character jumped in the passenger seat. Van didn’t want to take any chances, so he hopped out of the cab.

The attack on the Minnesota coin dealer in Orlando was downright scary. Van said there’s been a flurry of e-mails in the coin dealer community with talks of using a security service, like Brinks, for dealers to avoid situations like this in the future.

Since bottoming in 2002, the coin market has been hot, as the chart here shows.  Apparently, it’s now attracting some rough characters.

I asked Van what he recommends our readers do with their coins after he buys them. He said: “You wouldn’t leave $25,000 in cash on your kitchen counter, would you? Put them in a safe or a safe-deposit box at the bank.”

At DailyWealth, we believe that pre-1933 graded U.S. gold coins are one of the best assets you can buy out there right now... They’re trading at their smallest premium to their meltdown values in history. You can make money as the price of gold moves up, and as the “collector’s premium” goes up.

When coin bull markets get into full swing, hundreds of percent returns are the norm. We haven’t had a real bull market in coins since the late 1980s... We are due for one.

I think from now on, I’ll buy my coins through the mail through guys like Van, as opposed to wandering around outside of coins shows with them...

Good investing,

Steve

Editor's note: Steve Sjuggerud is a regular contributor to DailyWealth, a free investment newsletter focused on the world's best contrarian opportunities. We write with a simple belief in mind: You don't have to take big risks to make big money with your investments.

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TECH STOCKS TAKE THE LEAD AGAIN

It’s a classic case of the guillotine and the sandpaper...

No matter what country or time period, investment cycles run like this: After becoming overvalued and adored by the public, a stock sector gets guillotined and loses 75% of its value. Despite taking those huge losses, investors hold onto their shares... until years of losing money convince them the stocks are hopeless. They finally sell in disgust.

That’s when contrarian investors step in. That’s when you can buy extraordinary assets on the cheap... like gold in 2000... oil in 2003... and now, large tech and telecom stocks.

After moving sideways for years, sales and earnings for world-champion businesses like Intel, Microsoft, and Verizon have grown massively. The stocks are now trading for reasonable valuations... and like the Jeffersons, they’re moving on up.

Toyota Motor Corp., struggling to meet U.S. demand and facing a possible political backlash over its imports from Japan, may build as many as five North American assembly plants in the next 10 years, according to people familiar with the plans.

Five more plants would give Toyota 12 in North America, about the same number Ford Motor Co. will have after its current round of closings. Based on Toyota’s recent investments, five factories would create about 10,000 jobs and cost $5 billion.

-Bloomberg

As much as the [energy] stocks have risen in recent years, earnings have risen more. As a result, energy shares have rarely looked so cheap. They’re trading at 9.8 times estimated 2006 earnings per share, according to S&P. Three years ago, the price-to-earnings ratio was 13.7.

If it wasn’t for the rather cheaply valued energy companies and their robust earnings, the overall market might not look so cheap. Take away the energy sector, and that P/E skips up to 17.3. By the same token, energy has provided an outsize portion of overall earnings growth. For 2006, estimated S&P 500 earnings per share look to be 56% higher than in 2003. Take away energy, and earnings grew by 44%.

In other words, if it wasn’t for energy companies’ contribution, the stock market would exhibit slower earnings growth and be more expensive. And this may be the year energy companies stop contributing.

-Justin Lahart,
Wall Street Journal

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