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Still Possible: 100% Upside in Oceanfront Property
by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
May 10, 2006

About ten years ago, Mike Cobb made his first substantial international real estate investment, and became an owner in a resort in the Caribbean. 

It was a life-changing decision.

But it wasn’t easy.  Between hurricanes and unscrupulous local employees (“holes in the cash register,” Mike calls ‘em), making the resort profitable was next to impossible. 

“I didn’t know what I didn’t know,” Mike says.  Then he came to a big conclusion:  To do it right, I have to be there

So about four years ago, Mike did the unthinkable… he moved his wife and child from their suburban, white-picket-fence lifestyle outside of D.C. to – get this – Nicaragua.

I consider myself somewhat of Nicaragua pioneer…  I first went there in 1993 and built a house there in the late 1990s.  I’ve always said, “as long as Americans think of Nicaragua as Russia With Palm Trees, it’ll be a good buy.”

But I never committed to it like Mike has… nobody has.

I call Mike Cobb the “Indiana Jones of Investing.”  He’s not afraid to go anywhere he sees opportunity.  He saw opportunity, and went after it.  Mike and some investors bought 3.5 miles of beachfront land in Nicaragua, less than an hour from the international airport. 

Mike needed to be on the ground to make it happen, hounding contractors and the government, and meeting with potential real estate buyers as they came to town.  He took it upon himself to make this project work.

I was skeptical at first… it was awfully large project.  His was the second major coastal project in the country, after Rancho Santana.   From what I’ve seen, projects fail in “fringe” destinations because they run out of money, not because they’re bad ideas.  Mike was going to need a heck of a lot of money, and a little luck… 

I never said it to him, but I thought Mike needed a bull market in real estate to get his massive project to critical mass.  To give you an idea of how this project can just swallow up cash, Mike had already spent millions, and the first time he drove me to the beach at “Gran Pacifica,” there was no path yet… We were knocking over small trees in his four-wheel drive to get to the beach. 

Times have changed, massively…

Mike Cobb got the luck he needed…  After a somewhat slow start, coastal real estate prices are soaring in Nicaragua.  Many homes are now being built at Gran Pacifica.  Golf is coming in.  One condo building is sold out and is now under construction.  Over 100 lots have been sold that require owners to build within two years of buying, which will help create a real community, instead of a “ghost town” of lots.

I’ve always been a supporter of Mike.  Porter Stansberry and I bought what I think is the premier lot in his development so far, and we’ll build a beach house there that we’ll hopefully use with our families for decades.

While prices have soared, I still think there’s still 100% of upside on the table here.  Nicaragua is right next door to Costa Rica, and offers the same climate, coastline, fishing, etc.  Only the prices are much lower.

Is there risk?  Absolutely.  A U.S. recession would undoubtedly knock prices down.  And of course there’s political risk.  Because of the risk, Nicaraguan prices will never come close to California prices, or even Costa Rica prices.  But right now there’s a limited supply of quality accessible beachfront properties in Nicaragua.  Meanwhile, the demand keeps on coming.

I know two real estate developments in Nicaragua particularly well… years ago, I built a home in Rancho Santana (www.ranchosantana.com), and now as an owner at Mike’s project, Gran Pacifica, I’ll soon be building a home there too (www.granpacifica.com). 

I’ve met a lot of realtors in Nicaraguan over the years.  Honestly, I didn’t trust most of them.  The most solid realtor I know there is Barry Oliver.  Barry is an American who worked for a tech company, and got out around 2000 and moved to Central America. 

Barry’s ideal… He’s responsible.  He knows the entire coastline better than anyone (as he’s a great surfer always looking for an undiscovered wave).  He married a Central American woman, so he knows the local scoop and speaks perfect Spanish. 

He opened the first Century 21 office on the coast in Nicaragua.  And he’s set up a U.S. phone number that actually reaches his office in Nicaragua:  (904) 430-2022 His email is: barry@c21sanjuandelsur.com  You can reach Mike Cobb by email at mmmcobb@aol.com

Investing in Nicaragua real estate is risky, no doubt.  Also by buying now, you’re buying at the bottom.  However, it’s really just now receiving some mainstream coverage.  The trend is up, and I expect it will be for a few more years.

If you follow our DailyWealth mantra of buying hated quality assets, cheaply, once the uptrend is in place, you have to at least consider Nicaraguan real estate…

Good investing,

Steve

Editor's note: Steve Sjuggerud is a regular contributor to DailyWealth, a free investment newsletter focused on the world's best contrarian opportunities. We write with a simple belief in mind: You don't have to take big risks to make big money with your investments.

Sign up today to read more investment ideas from Steve Sjuggerud.

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OAKMARK’S BIG BET STARTS TO PAY OFF

There’s no bigger fan of Washington Mutual (WM) than Bill Nygren.

Considered one of the world’s best value investors, Nygren manages over $10 billion for the Oakmark family of mutual funds. Washington Mutual is the nation’s largest savings and loan, with huge retail and mortgage banking operations. 

As of March 31, Nygren had over 15% of his Oakmark Select fund in Washington Mutual – a huge position size for any portfolio.  The bank trades at 12 times earnings and pays a large dividend.
 
The past few years, “WaMu” stock has simply treaded water.  But the situation is starting to change…

As shown by today’s chart, Washington Mutual has made a multi-year breakout into the high 40s.  Bill’s bet is starting to pay off.

Yielding 4.5% and on the rise: Washington Mutual (4 year chart):

-Brian Hunt


“The alchemists of old spent their lives looking for a way to turn lead and other base metals into gold. They never succeeded. But there are alchemists today -- these latter-day alchemists have found a way to turn junk paper into gold.

Here's how you do it -- you take your junk paper dollar to a coin dealer, and you tell the dealer you want to swap your dollars for gold. And presto, you can change your junk paper dollars into gold.

Try it, I guarantee that it works.”

-Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters

“Newspaper circulation fell 2.6% in the six-month period ending in March, according to data released Monday, as the industry continued to struggle with competition from other media outlets and the Internet.

Gannett Co.'s USA Today remained the top-selling newspaper with 2,272,815 copies, up 0.09% from the same period a year ago; while The Wall Street Journal, published by Dow Jones & Co., was second with 2,049,786, down 1%.”

-The Wall Street Journal

“The $1.8 billion purchase last year of the Chicago Skyway and the $3.8 billion deal last month for the Indiana Toll Road have opened the eyes of politicians, who didn't recognize that their toll roads could fetch such hefty sums.

The lure for the investors is that, before maintenance costs are taken into account, the margins on toll roads can be 80% or more.”

-Barron’s

The Second Most Famous Oil Geologist
May 09, 2006

A Sustainable 12% Dividend – In Fast Food
May 08, 2006

The Future of American Gasoline
May 05, 2006

What The WSJ Doesn’t Know About Gold
May 04, 2006

Market Philosophy of The Puzzle Junkie
May 03, 2006

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