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Before You Buy… Is It Great?
by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
April 3, 2006

I was offered a great deal on some real estate this week… 

I know the seller and the property well, and the deal makes good sense just based on rental income alone. The thing is, it’s a nice property, but not a great property…

Warren Buffett became the world’s second richest man by investing.  Once, he bought cheap.  Now he buys great.  It took him many years to figure this out.  Here’s how he tells it:

“I guess I had too much inclination originally to buy mediocre, or worse than mediocre, businesses at a very cheap price. That works OK, in the sense that you never lose money; but you never end up with a great business that way either.

So that emphasis has shifted over the years. We don't want to buy the worst furniture store in town at the cheapest price; we want to buy the best one at a fair price.

Right now, Warren Buffett is sitting on $45 billion in cash.  He’s practicing what he preaches.  Just because you have cash, doesn’t mean you have to spend it right now. 

Buffett wants to buy great assets, at fair prices.  And his big cash position tells me he’s not finding fair prices right now…

I think I’ll follow Warren Buffett’s advice in this real estate opportunity… Instead of buying an “acceptable asset at a great price,” I’ll wait on an “extraordinary asset at a fair price.”

It’s actually what we do all the time in True Wealth.  In 2001, we loaded up on cheap and great real estate stocks, like Simon Property Group (SPG).  (Simon is up three-fold since then… and we took profits around a 100% gain.) 

Later, we made big money in things as diverse as mortgage REITs and timberland, all by sticking with the idea of buying great assets at fair prices.  Specifically, timberland giant Rayonier is now up about 90% from when I first recommended it in January of 2004.

This lesson is not an easy one to put into practice… it’s much easier to understand a low price than it is to figure a “reasonable” price for a great asset.  But this is the way to Buffett-like profits… buy great assets at fair prices.

So the next time you’re sizing up an investment, ask yourself, “Am I buying this because it’s cheap?  Or because it’s great?” 

If it isn’t an exceptional asset, then wait.  That way, you’ll have the cash when it comes along…

Good investing,

Steve

Editor's note: Steve Sjuggerud is a regular contributor to DailyWealth, a free investment newsletter focused on the world's best contrarian opportunities. We write with a simple belief in mind: You don't have to take big risks to make big money with your investments.

Sign up today to read more investment ideas from Steve Sjuggerud.

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NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Gold, silver, copper, zinc, palladium
Nikkei 225 Index… Japanese stocks
Starbucks (SBUX)… coffee shops
Rayonier (RYN)… timber
Nasdaq… tech stocks hit 5-year high
Russell 2000 Growth Index… small cap growth stocks
Schnitzer Steel (SCHN)… scrap metal
PetroChina (PTR)… China’s oil giant
10-year Treasury yields… a breakout in interest rates
Crude Oil… seven-week high
E*TRADE (ET)… up 100% in the last seven months

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Frontline (FRO)… woes continue for oil shipping companies
iShares Lehman 20+ Year Bond Fund (TLT)… rising rates hammer ETF

New High of Special Note…

One of the best places to make big profits during the 2003 market rally, small cap growth companies (as measured by the Russell 2000 Growth Index), are still leading the market higher. 

This index of growth stocks has returned 100% in the past three years, nearly doubling the return of the S&P 500 during the same period.

For now, growth rolls on… the Russell 2K Growth Index since 2003:

-Brian Hunt


“Petroleos Mexicanos, the world's third-largest oil producer, risks declining output for the first time in seven years unless lawmakers allow for private investment, cutting supplies on the world market as demand increases.

Pemex CEO Luis Ramirez Corzo said Mexico will leave billions of barrels untapped in deep Gulf of Mexico waters and in a costly onshore field without partners to provide technology and share risks. Mexican law allows only Pemex to extract oil and gas and to refine crude, barring companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell from investing in the industry.

Proven reserves have fallen every year for more than a decade, leaving the country with less than 10 years worth of oil reserves at current production levels.”

-Bloomberg

“Royal Dutch Shell said on Monday it would not resume normal oil production in Nigeria until the region was safe enough for its workers and facilities.

Shell made its comments following the release of three foreign oil workers held hostage for five weeks. The company has shut-in 455,000 barrels per day of crude production in Nigeria due to militant attacks.”

-Reuters

“After a moderately successful 3-year run, Hooters Air announced Wednesday the airline is ending regularly scheduled passenger service, effective April 17.

High fuel prices are considered the most likely culprit for the airline’s failure.”

-Aero-News.net

INVESTING IN STAMPS

Among the hundreds of dot.com companies recovering from the tech stock meltdown of 2000, Stamps.com (STMP) is proving to be one of the best investments.  Shares have gained 300% in the past 3 years.

STMP allows people to “never go to the Post Office again,” by selling stamps over the Internet.  Mailers can also print their own pictures on stamps with the company’s technology.

A doubling of share price in the past 6 months has been a bonanza for company insiders, who are unloading huge amounts of stock in 2006.

This Market Was Rigged For Decades
March 31, 2006

Are China Plays Overhyped?
March 30, 2006

My Quest to Meet Steve Leuthold
March 29, 2006

Before You Buy That Condo… Read This
March 28, 2006

Time to Buy in Iceland
March 27, 2006

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