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Steve's note: This weekend's essay is taken from one of the all-time classic books on investing and trading, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. For the priceless story of "Old Turkey," read on...
Saturday, May 5, 2007
In Fullerton's, there were the usual crowd. All grades!
Well, there was one old chap who was not like the others. To begin with, he was a much older man. Another thing was that he never volunteered advice and never bragged of his winnings. He was a great hand for listening very attentively to the others. He did not seem very keen to get tips – that is, he never asked the talkers what they'd heard or what they knew. But when somebody gave him one he always thanked the tipster very politely. Sometimes he thanked the tipster again – when the tip turned out OK. But if it went wrong, he never whined, so that nobody could tell whether he followed it or let it slide by.
It was a legend of the office that the old jigger was rich and could swing quite a line. But he wasn't donating much to the firm in the way of commissions; at least not that anyone could see. His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed him Turkey behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit of strutting about the various rooms, with the point of his chin resting on his breast.
The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others, used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friend of a friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock. They would tell him what they had not done with the tip so he would tell them what they ought to do. But whether the tip they had ways to buy or to sell, the old chap's answer was always the same.
The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity and then ask: "What do you think I ought to do?"
Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, "You know, it's a bull market!"
Time and again I heard him say, "Well, this is a bull market, you know!" as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident-insurance policy. And, of course, I did not get his meaning.
One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the office, wrote out an order, and gave it to the clerk. Then, he rushed over to where Mr. Partridge was listening politely to John Fanning's story of the time he overheard Keene give an order to one of his brokers and all that John made was a measly three points on a hundred shares and of course the stock had to go up twenty-four points in three days right after John sold out. It was at least the fourth time that John had told him that tale of woe, but old Turkey was smiling as sympathetically as if it was the first time he heard it.
Well, Elmer made for the old man and, without a word of apology to John Fanning, told Turkey, "Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I'll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you'd better do likewise. That is, if you've still got yours."
Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the original tip to buy. The amateur, or gratuitous, tipster always thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and soul, even before he knows how the tip is going to turn out.
"Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!" said Turkey gratefully. It was nice of Elmer to think of the old chap.
"Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip," said Elmer, as if he had just made out the deposit slip for the old man. Failing to perceive enthusiastic gratitude in the beneficiary's face Elmer went on: "I have just sold every share I own!"
From his voice and manner you would have conservatively estimated it at ten thousand shares.
But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, "No! No! I can't do that!"
"What?' yelled Elmer.
"I simply can't!" said Mr. Partridge. He was in great trouble.
"Didn't I give you the tip to buy it?"
"You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you. Indeed, I am, sir. But"
"Hold on! Let me talk! And didn't that stock go up seven points in ten days? Didn't it?"
"It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn't think of selling that stock."
"You couldn't?" asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself. It is a habit with most tip givers to be tip takers.
"No, I couldn't."
"Why not" And Elmer drew nearer.
"Why, this is a bull market!" The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation.
"That's all right," said Elmer, looking angry because of his disappointment. "I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you'd better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself."
"My dear boy," said old Partridge, in great distress–"my dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position; and then where would I be?"
Elmer Harwood threw up his hands, shook his head and walked over to me to get sympathy: "Can you beat it?" he asked me in a stage whisper. "I ask you!"
I didn't say anything. So he went on: "I give him a tip on Climax Motors. He buys five hundred shares. He's got seven points' profit and I advise him to get out and buy 'em back on the reaction that's overdue even now. And what does he say when I tell him? He says if he sells he'll lose his job. What do you know about that?"
"I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn't say I'd lose my job," cut in old Turkey. "I said I'd lose my position. And when you are as old as I am and you've been through as many booms and panics as I have, you'll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don't feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It's a bull market, you know." And he strutted away, leaving Elmer dazed.
What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market. The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me.
I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, "Well, you know this is a bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements – that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.
– Extract taken from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator Copyright © 1994 By Edwin Lefevre. Reprinted by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Editor's Note: Edwin Lefevre (1871-1943) was trained as a mining engineer, but became a journalist at age 19. He produced eight books, including The Making of a Stockbroker, during his 53-year writing career.
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator started as a series of his articles published in the Saturday Evening Post between 1922 and 1923. It is required reading for any student of stock market and commodity trading.Click here to order a copy.
It's Official: The Bear Market is Dead!
The S&P 500 is the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market, representing about 75% of the United States' entire market capitalization. In other words, if you want to judge the performance of the U.S. stock market, you look at the S&P 500, not the Dow or the Nasdaq.
The S&P 500 index made it's all-time high on September 1, 2000... closing at 1,520.77. On Friday, it closed around 1,500, just 20 points away.
When the S&P 500 makes its new all-time high, there can be no doubt: The bear market of 2000-2002 is history.