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Would You Like a Lamborghini for $40?

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Friday, September 14, 2007

"S'cuse me, sir, would you fancy a Lamborghini for 20 quid?"

I was stopped yesterday by a young Englishman with messy hair and a tie. Right behind him, you couldn't miss it... he had a brand new, bright yellow Lamborghini sports car.

"If you don't like it, you can have a Porsche or an Aston Martin instead... just 20 pounds," he tells me.

I wasn't anywhere you'd expect to see a Lamborghini... I was stuck in London's Gatwick Airport.

"Is this some kind of car dealership promotion?" I asked. He said no. "Then what's the deal?"

"It's a raffle."

"Oh, so you sell more tickets than the car costs?" He says I've got it right.

He's got all the answers... and he's not giving up on me.

I tell him I'm American, to blow him off politely. He tells me they'll buy me a left-hand drive car. And they'll ship the car to me in the States, or wherever I want, no charge. I tell him I wouldn't want to pay the insurance on one of those things. He tells me they give the winner an additional $12,000 with the car to cover that.

"Look, sir, our company trades on the London Stock Exchange. We've given away 150 cars so far. Just 20 quid." He then points me to the pictures of the previous winners... mostly males... mostly with huge smiles on their faces. "BestOfTheBest.co.uk" he tells me.

This is one good racket, I think to myself. Gatwick has only one waiting area. And this guy has his Lamborghini on it. I can't politely get out of here. I take a brochure and tell him I'll be passing back through soon.

I get on my plane to Guernsey. I open the newspaper on my short flight, and the first thing I open to is an ad for El Gordo – The Big One. This is a lottery for $3 billion. No joke. It's run by the Spanish government. And this "come-on" is stronger than the Lamborghini sales pitch. "One in seven are winners," it says. Of course, the numbers are ridiculous.

How can any ordinary person resist?

Apparently, they can't...

August was a horrendous month in the investment world, as fear and volatility forced investors into deer-in-headlights mode. But casinos were rolling in money. The best-performing stock market sector in August, you may be surprised to learn, was Casinos & Gambling, up more than 8%.

Bally (BYI), for example, was up 35% in August on strong earnings, and the industry is optimistic about growth prospects – Chinese gamblers are pouring into Macau to roll the dice. While investors of every sort got hurt, gambling companies are making a mint.

I am not a gambler. August notwithstanding, I believe my odds are better in my investments than they are in the casinos. But the casinos and gaming companies come up with endless promotions to suck in those who are willing to take a flyer.

Apparently, lots of scams are related to El Gordo... "Just send your bank details to us and [we] will wire you your prize money," one of the scams says. People excitedly send their bank details to perfect strangers. (For more on El Gordo, click here: http://www.madrid-guide-spain.com/el-gordo.html)

Best of the Best, it turns out, is not a "raffle" after all, even though that's what the salesperson told me. It is a "skill-based game." After you pay your money, you must play a game called "Spot the Ball." I assume they do this for some legal reason, so it's not considered gambling.

A fool and his money are soon parted, they say. These gambling operations make mountains of money by speeding that process along.

My take is, if you want to make money from gambling, don't be the fool... Be the other side of the trade. As I've written before, I prefer investing in Macau, where the growth is. I've recommended my favorite Macau play to subscribers of Sjuggerud Confidential. The stock is a direct play on Macau, and trades for less than $2 a share. If you want to double your money in gambling, consider stocks like this instead of slot machines in Vegas, or El Gordo...

Good investing,

Steve







THE BIGGER THE CHINA STORY, THE BIGGER THE GAINS


In 1999, one could buy equity in even the most hopeless business and still make hundreds of percent returns. The only requirements were A) a good Silicon Valley story and B) a suffix that resembled "tech," "com," or "soft."

Fast forward eight years and move 7,000 miles, and you have the same situation in Chinese stocks. Try these numbers on for size: The Shanghai Composite is up 200% in the past year. China Mobile has doubled in the same time. As China's largest wireless carrier, the story doesn't get much better.

Or maybe it does. Today, we present China's leading player in all things security related, China Security & Surveillance Technology. As the communist Chinese government grows richer and more powerful by the day, it's extremely interested in helping its citizens behave. That, of course, requires millions upon millions in surveillance spending.

Please do not consider this a buy recommendation (the stock is up 260% in the past year)… simply an illustration that the China mania is on… it's a "buy whatever" environment. Stories trump rational thinking. The bigger the story, the bigger the gains.


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