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John McCain Hates These Stocks

By Tom Dyson, publisher, The Palm Beach Letter
Monday, May 19, 2008

When ethanol comes out of the plant, the first thing they do is add a few drops of gasoline. This has nothing to do with performance or transport... It's simply to poison the ethanol so people won't drink it. 
 
I was at an ethanol plant in central Iowa last week. The plant manager let me sniff the ethanol. Then he explained why it smelled of gas. I told him I couldn't believe someone would actually drink ethanol. He told me he had to fire one of his staff the other day for doing just that. "He was mixing it with Sprite," he said.
 
I asked him about taking shots of ethanol. He told me, if you took a shot of ethanol, it would dry out your throat and mouth so fast, you'd asphyxiate and die immediately. "I haven't tried it myself," he added. "That's just what I've heard."

Three years ago, ethanol producers were the darlings of the stock market. They were selling for 100 times earnings and their stock prices were doubling and tripling every few weeks. I remember playing golf with two high school basketball coaches at the time. One of them asked me how to invest in ethanol.

Now the ethanol industry is struggling. The American public thinks ethanol caused food prices to rise. Politicians are attacking the ethanol industry to win votes. The press hates ethanol. Even Charlie Munger (Warren Buffett's investment partner) hates ethanol. He says, "Running cars on corn is about the stupidest thing I ever heard of."
 
VeraSun Energy, the largest ethanol stock, trades below book value. In other words, you can buy this company for less than the cash invested in it. VeraSun Energy's stock price is down 68% in the last six months. Pacific Ethanol – another large ethanol stock – has fallen from $45 a share to $3 a share in the last two years.
 
The manager at the ethanol plant was mad about what has happened. He said the Cattlemen's Association and Big Oil have used their marketing power to smear the ethanol industry. And the ethanol industry is too small to fight back.
 
You see, cattlemen hate ethanol because corn is more expensive and they make less profit selling meat. Oil companies hate ethanol because they sell less gasoline with so much ethanol in the system.
 
The plant manager said the public is wrong about ethanol and food prices. He said oil is probably the biggest factor in the soaring cost of food. And the cheap dollar is probably the second biggest factor. High oil prices make transportation and packaging costs go up. The cheap dollar makes foreigners less sensitive to the rising prices of American crops.
 
He also said no one realizes ethanol has reduced the cost of gas by 15%. Without ethanol, gas prices would be even higher now. 


Good investing,I'm trying to figure out if ethanol's a good investment. Frankly, I haven't made up my mind yet. The fortunes of the ethanol industry depend on the government. Without the government's support, the ethanol industry wouldn't exist in America. So to invest in ethanol, you have to know what the government's going to do.
 
John McCain hates ethanol. If he wins the election, he'll remove all the ethanol subsidies and hurt the farm economy. If the Democrats win, they'll keep the subsidies in place, and ethanol stocks will probably take off...

Tom

 

Editor's note: Tom Dyson is a regular contributor to DailyWealth, a free investment newsletter focused on the world's best contrarian opportunities. We write with a simple belief in mind: You don't have to take big risks to make big money with your investments. 






NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK
 
ABB Ltd (ABB)... infrastructure builder
Tetra Tek (TTEK)... infrastructure builder
Fluor Corp (FLR)... infrastructure builder
BHP Billiton (BHP)... world's largest miner
Vale (RIO)... world's largest iron ore miner
Rio Tinto (RTP)... world's second largest iron ore miner
Unit Corp (UNT)... oil services – drilling
Nabors Indus (NBR)... oil services – drilling
Tenaris SA (TS)... oil services – drill pipe maker
Gulfmark Offshore (GLF)... oil services – marine service
Gulf Island Fabrication (GLFI)... oil services – drill rig builder 
Oil States Intl (OIS)... oil services – well servicing, pipes, drilling
ArcelorMittal (MT)... Indian International Strategist pick
Aracruz Cellulose (ARA)... Brazilian International Strategist pick  
Eni (ENI)... government-backed oil company
Petrobras (PBR)... government-backed oil company
StatoilHydro (STO)... government-backed oil company
Suncor Energy (SU)... Canadian oil sands
Peabody Energy (BTU)... largest U.S. coal producer
San Juan Basin (SJT)... natural gas trust
iShares Brazil (EWZ)... the ultimate emerging market


NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK


Playboy (PLA)... pornography
First Marblehead (FMD)... student lending
Imperial Sugar (IPSU)... refined sugar
Resource America (REXI)... holding co
Whole Foods (WFMI)... luxury grocer

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