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Steve DeLaney's Bold Call: Safe 28% Dividends Over Two Years

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Steve DeLaney can't explain what he does for a living to his parents...

"Son, why couldn't you have been a doctor or a lawyer, like your cousin?" they probably say.

Regardless, he's one of the best in the world at what he does.

Steve DeLaney analyzes what I call "virtual banks" for a living. He only covers the ones that have no credit risk.  He covers the 100% safe ones. (So, he's an RMBS REIT analyst. Explain that one to mom and pop.)

When the cycle is right, you can make hundreds of percent returns in virtual banks.  After many years of the cycle being wrong, the cycle is now right... once again.

Last week, Steve made a bold call...

He raised his earnings estimates on the four safe virtual banks he follows. If his estimates come true, he's talking about an average of 28% in total dividend payments over the next two years. 

That's just the tip of the iceberg as well. Once investors figure out these companies and see these dividends are really coming true, they'll bid the share prices up dramatically. You can count on it.

It's already starting... The four stocks Delaney follows are up more than 50% on average in the last four months. But they're still extremely cheap.

Even better, I actually believe Delaney's seemingly outrageous "28% over two years" estimate is conservative. Here's why...

Virtual banks, at their core, are simple businesses. No storefront or employees needed. Virtual banks simply borrow money at a low rate and invest it at a higher one. They make a profit from that spread – the difference between the rate they borrow at and the rate they earn on their 100%-safe investments.

All things equal, the crucial factor for the virtual banks is what the Fed is doing... If the Fed is lowering interest rates, it's Virtual Bank Nirvana. 

Guess what... The Fed is cutting interest rates.

In Steve Delaney's calculations, he assumes the Fed will stop lowering interest rates at 3.75%. It's a cautious guess. The Bond King, Bill Gross, is bolder... 

Bill Gross says the Fed could cut interest rates to 3% – or lower – in 2008. And Steve Leuthold – one of my favorite money managers – recently did a compelling study that agrees with Gross. If the studies these guys have done are right – and the Fed cuts to 3%, virtual banks will make you triple-digit returns. Safely.

In my newsletters True Wealth and Sjuggerud Confidential, I recommend three out of four of these virtual banks. Subscribers are already enjoying nice gains so far. We have bigger gains to look forward to.

Again, I think Delaney's new bold estimates could turn out to be conservative. And chances are great that we'll make much more money in capital gains than in dividends over the next two years anyway.

If you're not in virtual banks yet, get in now. If you don't know a whole lot about them yet, come on board as a subscriber. Your dividends alone in the next two years will more than cover your subscription cost...

Good investing,

Steve

Editor's note: Steve Sjuggerud is a regular contributor to DailyWealth, a free investment newsletter focused on the world's best contrarian opportunities. We write with a simple belief in mind: You don't have to take big risks to make big money with your investments.

 
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THE CONSUMER SLOWDOWN'S POSTER CHILD


No stock catches the state of American spending like North America's largest home-improvement chain, Home Depot (HD). The stock hit yet another new low last week... and is closing in on a 35% loss for the year.

We make the case for Home Depot's importance because a family's home is its most prized material possession. If folks aren't spending money at the Depot on better roofing, landscaping, kitchens, windows, and plumbing, they're spending money on the bare basics only.

This explains why the stocks of Procter & Gamble and Colgate Palmolive are thriving, and why the stocks of American Express, Starbucks, Domino's Pizza, Kohl's, Wendy's, Pier One, Ralph Lauren, Black & Decker, and General Motors all have "preferred member" status on the new lows list.

We could name 50 more consumer brands hitting new lows, but the picture is clear: The American consumer has been punched in gut. So how can we profit from the mess? Well, you could short a few spending-sensitive stocks, but buying virtual banks is far easier and safer. As the Federal Reserve realizes the sorry state of America's finances, easy credit and lower interest rates will follow... making 2008 the year of the virtual bank.


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