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A Quick Trade on Presidential Politics

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Tuesday, May 6, 2008

On November 4, 2008, we'll elect a new president... and that election will definitely create profit opportunities.

In my career, I've found government actions can create some of the biggest moneymaking opportunities... If we can spot these early enough, we can really make some outsized profits.

We don't have any political agenda here in DailyWealth. Our goal is to find you the safest, highest-returning opportunities we can. We're simply interested in one question...

How can we capitalize on likely policy changes?

So let's think... What will Democrats do if they're elected? There's one big angle we ought to play...

Hillary Clinton's official website says: "Hillary recognizes that global warming is one of the most pressing moral issues of our time... As President, Hillary would lead the charge to halt global warming... As President, she'll work to require power companies to obtain 20% of their energy from renewable sources by 2020."

Twenty percent! Now that sounds like a tall order! Not to be outdone...

Barack Obama wants 25% of electricity to be "derived from clean, sustainable energy sources, like solar, wind and geothermal by 2025," according to his official campaign website. If that's not enough, Obama will raise the bar even higher for the federal government. "As president, Obama will ensure that at least 30% of the federal government's electricity comes from renewable sources by 2020."

In essence, Hillary and Barack want us to go from a standing start to a full sprint with alternative energy.

As the presidential race heats up, we'll hear a lot more about solar and wind power. It's so politically correct... Oil's at $115 per barrel, prices at the pump are high, and we're at war in the Middle East.

In short, investing in alternative energy will seem like a "no-brainer" by the time the election comes around. Everyone will be in the trade. And that's exactly when we want to be selling!

What we want is an alternative-energy investment that is safe...

For my paid subscribers, I uncovered an extraordinary opportunity – the "Hillary Trade." I found a tech stock that happens to own half of a solar power company... and its stake in the solar company is worth more than the tech company's entire stock market value!

Out of respect to my paying subscribers, I can't share that opportunity here. But there are other ways to make this bet... and spread your risk... For example, you could own one of a handful of alternative energy exchange traded funds (ETFs), like the PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy Portfolio (PBW).

Personally, I am skeptical of solar energy and other alternative-energy stocks. I think they're the dot-coms of today... in the sense that they're expensive, and most of them are unproven technologies that haven't yet made money. They need government subsidies to survive.

But we're getting much closer to the day when these technologies will pay for themselves. According to scientist, inventor, and "futurist" Ray Kurzweil:

"...The tipping point at which energy from solar panels will actually be less expensive than fossil fuels is only a few years away. The power we are generating from solar is doubling every two years; at that rate, it will be able to meet all our energy needs within 20 years."

So, in 20 years, we'll all be "green" anyway... since that will be the cheapest and most efficient way to generate electricity.

In the meantime, Hillary and Barack are making big campaign promises. And you'll be hearing a whole lot more about solar power and renewable energy over the next six months, as the campaign heats up.

I don't know what the winning technologies will be. And I don't know who will win the election. So I don't want to be in this trade very long. And I don't want to take much risk.

My recommendation is to take a position in the safest play you can to capitalize on the increasing solar hype. Buy now, and sell two weeks before the election (when it's still uncertain who will win) or when you've hit your profit target, whichever comes first.

Good investing,

Steve





Market Notes


THE "CLOSE YOUR EYES AND BUY" BULL MARKET

The uptrend in natural gas we've covered here and here is now at a 27-month high.

Although the price of natural gas has nearly tripled in the past five years, it has done so with massive volatility. The clean fuel is enjoying huge worldwide demand... but weather-related factors cause "natty" to spike and crash several times a year. This is why we call natural gas the "close your eyes and buy" bull market.

Although we like natural gas right now, it really doesn't matter what fuel source you're invested in... The No. 1 trend in the market is on your side: rising energy prices.

Whether it's coal, crude oil, natural gas, ethanol, or propane, the "tide" in energy is high and rising. As long as this tide remains elevated, investors in the likes of Transocean, Canadian gas trusts, coal, and government-backed oil companies stand to make a fortune.



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