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The Bull Market That's Killing Domino's Pizza

By Tom Dyson, publisher, The Palm Beach Letter
Tuesday, February 19, 2008

"We have no choice but to raise prices substantially," said Dick Bond last week...
 

Dick Bond is CEO of Tyson Foods. Tyson is the world's largest processor of chicken, beef, and pork. Corn is Tyson's largest expense. That's because chicken, beef, and pork are ultimately just different forms of processed corn with higher profit margins.

Right now, corn prices are at 12-year highs because of the U.S. government's drive to produce ethanol. And higher corn prices have led to higher wheat and soybean prices. Wheat is at an all-time high. Soybeans are at an all-time high. The most recent quarterly earnings at Tyson Foods declined 40% because of these high grain prices.

According to Bond, government mandates for corn-based ethanol drove up grain prices, which have cascaded through other agricultural markets. "Cooking oil, flour, and other feed ingredients are all on the rise," said Bond. "For the foreseeable future, consumers will pay more and more for food, especially protein."

Domino's Pizza is another company feeling cost pressure. Cheese makes up 50% of the cost of a pizza. Cheese prices jumped 15% in 2007. Flour prices are also rising strongly. Bread prices rose 7.5% last year. And according to Goldman Sachs, wheat stocks in the United States are the lowest they've been since 1948.

So far, Domino's has resisted raising the price of its pizza in the United States – it will raise prices in the United Kingdom – and is paying for it. In its most recent profit report, Domino's reported a 55% decline in earnings. By the end of 2007, Domino's share price had fallen 70% from its 52-week high.

Kraft owns brands like DiGiorno Pizza, Maxwell House, Oreo, Oscar Mayer, and Philadelphia Cream Cheese. Kellogg is America's largest cereal maker. Both companies reported fourth-quarter results two weeks ago. Kraft's earnings fell 6.3% compared to the same period last year. Kellogg's earnings declined 3% over the same period.

"The fourth quarter was one of the worst ever for food companies in terms of commodity costs," said Reuters, commenting on the announcements by Kellogg and Kraft.

I wrote to my farmland contact – a hog farmer in Sioux County, Iowa – to find out how higher prices had affected life in the Midwest.

"I don't think locals are manic about Ag yet," says Roger, "though land prices have tripled in the past five years."

Roger says many of the grain elevators near him are close to insolvency. Grain elevators buy grain from farmers and then hold it in storage until the customers show up.

To protect themselves from falling prices – while the grain is held in storage – they take short positions in the futures markets. Roger says these short positions can generate huge margin calls when crop prices rise... and destroy the profits at grain elevators. The average grain elevator in Iowa, he says, pays an extra $2 million per day when prices move up just half the daily limit allowed on the exchange.

Here at DailyWealth, we saw this frenzy coming. I visited Iowa two years ago and wrote several articles about the coming agriculture boom.

I think this boom still has decades to run, even though the easy money is probably gone. The easiest way to play it is through the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund. The symbol is DBA. This fund moves in line with corn, wheat, soybean, and sugar futures.

You should also expect higher bills at the checkout counter and in restaurants for many years to come...

Good investing,

Tom

Editor's note: Tom Dyson is a regular contributor to DailyWealth, a free investment newsletter focused on the world's best contrarian opportunities. We write with a simple belief in mind: You don't have to take big risks to make big money with your investments.

 
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NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Arch Coal (ACI)... coal
Massey Energy (MEE)... coal
CONSOL Energy (CNX)... coal
International Coal (ICO)... coal
James River Coal (JRCC)... you guessed it
Devon Energy (DVN)... oil & gas
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)... iron ore
Ultra Petroleum (UPL)... oil & gas
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)... natural gas
Contango Oil & Gas (MCF)... oil & gas
Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (CRT)... natural gas
Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)... oil & gas
Compass Minerals (CMP)... salt and potash mining
Potash Saskatchewan (POT)... potash mining

Platinum, Sugar, Coffee, Soybeans, Silver, Cocoa, Rice, Oats, Canola

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

UBS (UBS)... banking
AIG (AIG)... insurance
Allstate (ALL)... insurance
EMC Insurance (EMC)... insurance
Barclays (BCS)... investment bank
Morgan Stanley (MS)... investment bank
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)... wood products
Books-A-Million (BAMM)... wood products
Playboy Enterprises (PLA)... entertainment
Gold Fields (GFI)... South African gold miner

 


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