Learn more
Advanced Search

Why It's a Government-Guaranteed Bull Market in Gold

By Matt Badiali, editor, S&A Resource Report
Thursday, January 31, 2008

You need three things to operate a gold mine: water, roads, and power...

Water to leach the metal out of the ore. Roads to get supplies and workers to and from the site. And finally, electricity to run the equipment. If you're missing any one of those three things, the mine is useless.

Miners are facing overtaxed infrastructure all over the world – water in Mexico, roads in India... and the granddaddy of all problems right now: electricity in South Africa.

In February 2006, blackouts blanketed southwestern South Africa and shut down Johannesburg. The utility blamed faulty transmission lines. Since then, the country has made little progress in improving the grid. Rolling blackouts are now a fact of life in the country.

Millions of people live without electricity for up to five hours at a time – no traffic lights, no refrigeration, and now... no gold mining.

 
South Africa's power problems won't have much effect on the average American. But from an investor's perspective, it's a huge deal. South Africa is the world's largest gold-producing country. It also produces three-quarters of the world's platinum. Last week, lack of electricity shut down the country's mines.

The price of gold hit $909.75 per ounce on January 15, then headed lower. By January 23, the yellow metal fell $20... a 2% fall in just six trading days. However, South Africa's problems sent the gold price to an all-time high of $923.95 per ounce on Monday

The U.S. Geologic Survey estimates South Africa's mines produced 8.68 million ounces of gold in 2006. That's 23,780 ounces of gold daily. In today's market, that's $22 million worth of gold every day.

The mines in South Africa are some of the deepest in the world. Imagine working a mile and a half below ground... and the lights go out. Losing electricity doesn't just turn out the lights. It cuts off the air supply and the means to escape the mines. That's why the mining companies shut them down.

South Africa has to make huge investments in electrical power infrastructure... new plants, new substations, and new power lines.

That means even more investments... in either coal, nuclear energy, or gas turbines... plus the country needs to contract fuel supplies. In Nevada, Newmont Mining invested several years and millions of dollars to build a 200-megawatt power plant. The company projects a savings of $25 per ounce in production... and it produced 5.9 million ounces of gold in 2006.

Newmont's management understands the value of investing in infrastructure. The question is, will South Africa have the means and the political will to do the same? I think the country will slap a Band-Aid on the problem in the short term – raising prices, forcing conservation, and trying to eke out more supply from its power plants.

We can blame South Africa's power problems on the government. Politicians love to mess with the free market, particularly when it comes to utilities. Gold's rise against paper currencies is also government related. The U.S. government, for instance, has helped push down the value of a dollar by 37% in the past six years.

So... the biggest threat to gold's bull market is the chance that the world's governments will suddenly become thrifty and foreword thinking.

I think you know the likelihood of that happening... which is why it's still a great idea to own gold for the long-term.

Good investing,

Matt Badiali

Editor's note: Matt Badiali is a regular contributor to DailyWealth, a free investment newsletter focused on the world's best contrarian opportunities. We write with a simple belief in mind: You don't have to take big risks to make big money with your investments.

 
Sign up today to read more investment ideas from Matt Badiali.







THIS CHART MIGHT MAKE YOU CHOKE



I apologize if today's chart makes you choke on your coffee...

Below, you'll find the S&P 500 measured in terms of "real money," gold. By measuring stocks in terms of gold, we get a rough idea of how far our stock profits are going when we buy things like milk, hotel rooms, health insurance, gasoline, airplane flights, and homes. All of these things cost much more than they did eight years ago.

You see, stocks in general have gained 69% since the beginning of the bull market in 2003. This return sounds great until we realize gold has increased 165% during the same time. In other words, stocks aren't even keeping pace with inflation.

As you can see from today's chart, the S&P 500 bottomed in real money terms in 2003. It staged a small rally lasting into 2005. Since that rally's peak, stocks have been whipped, losing 50% of their value against gold... By looking at stocks in terms we can eat, drink, and travel on, it's no wonder our relatives are asking how to "get in" on gold.

recent articles
  • The Big Canadian Lumber Dump... Here's How to Profit
    By Tom Dyson Wednesday, January 30, 2008
    Don says there's a reason wood prices collapsed while all other building materials went up in price: the Canadians.
     
    Right now, the Canadians are liquidating their inventories of lumber. They're selling at any price because they need the cash... no matter what.



  • My Favorite Gold-Stock Indicator Says Buy
    By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud Tuesday, January 29, 2008
    John discovered an extremely high correlation between the price of gold and the performance of the major gold stocks. And he devised a simple – but very effective – method for determining whether gold stocks are cheap or expensive.
     
    The relationship is simple to understand, too...



  • The Coming Fire Sale in Florida Property
    By Tom Dyson Monday, January 28, 2008
    Don entered the lumber business in 1979. In his 30-year career in the lumber-distribution business, he has worked for both national and regional lumber distributors. He's also worked through two major construction busts... in 1979-81 and 1990-91.

    Yesterday, I met Don in his office. I asked him about the homebuilding industry...


  • A Potential Bonanza for Infrastructure Investors
    By Chris Mayer Saturday, January 26, 2008
  • A Dramatic Signal the Crisis Has Passed
    By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud Friday, January 25, 2008
    So the liquidity crisis is over.
    Let me be careful with my words here... The subprime mess isn't over. And the housing crisis isn't over. More finance and housing companies with too much debt to survive will go under.