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Looking to jolt paralyzed buyers into action, builder Toll Brothers is offering a 3.99% fixed mortgage rate for 30 years, one of the lowest available.

Toll, based in Horsham, Pa., said the deal is for loans of $417,000 or less and carries no points for the buyer.

"We think we're going to create some excitement in the marketplace," said Don Salmon, president and chief executive of TBI Mortgage Co., Toll's mortgage subsidiary.

Toll didn't reveal its funding source, but said the lenders support the rock-bottom rate, which requires a credit score of 720 or higher and a down payment of 20% without private mortgage insurance.

- Wall Street Journal
The latest data show that global oil demand this year will fall to 1999 levels – the last time the oil industry was in a major slump.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency, citing a steadily worsening global economy, recently slashed its forecast of global oil demand this year by 1 million b/d. That compares with a decline of 800,000 b/d forecast by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and a drop of 180,000 b/d predicted by the OPEC Secretariat. It would mark the first time in more than 25 years that global oil demand will have fallen in consecutive years.

Perhaps the most critical indicator of the depth of the demand slump is the number of days' coverage – the number of days that current stocks can supply the market. The latest data from EIA for the last 4 weeks of US oil consumption show that coverage was 52 days, up almost 5 days from a year ago. Oil prices typically fall while days of coverage remain above 50.
- PennEnergy

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The Golden Age of Bond Investing

By Tom Dyson
Friday, January 23, 2009

In yesterday's column, I explained why government intervention is turning America's economy into a "vegetable economy."

The theory is, government bureaucrats are the worst allocators of capital in the world. Now that they control America's financial and real estate markets, the economy will stagnate. On the other hand, as long as the government continues shoveling out cash, there will be no more credit crunches, liquidity crises, or bank failures.

In today's essay, I'm going to show you why corporate bonds are the best investments you can own in this environment... 

A bond is a loan. The borrower takes the money and promises to pay it back on a certain date and deliver a scheduled interest payment for the duration of the loan. This is the best outcome a bondholder can expect. In the worst outcome, the bondholder receives no interest and doesn't get the money back.

In other words, bondholders don't care about growth, profits, and business performance. Receiving interest payments and getting their money back is all that matters to bondholders.

This is why the vegetable economy will treat bondholders so well. In the vegetable economy, government programs practically guarantee solvency and liquidity. There won't be growth... but that doesn't concern bondholders. As you'll see, it rewards them.

Let's start with liquidity. When liquidity is scarce, it means few people are willing to lend money. When there isn't much money available to borrow, borrowers must pay higher rates to attract it. Climbing rates are bad for bondholders.

Liquidity became scarce in the credit crunch. Bond yields flew through the ceiling. One year ago, investment-grade corporate bonds paid investors yields around 6.5%. Today, they offer average yields of 10%. Right now, hundreds of companies are willing to pay you 20% or more in annual interest rates to borrow your money.

In the new vegetable economy, there's plenty of liquidity. It's coming from the government and Federal Reserve. They've already bought billions of mortgage bonds and agency bonds (by "agency," I mean Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and similar institutions). They've guaranteed money-market funds and state investment pools. Now they're aiming their fire hose at the municipal-bond market.

With the Fed and Treasury trying to artificially lower rates on agency, mortgage, municipal, and Treasury bonds, they're making corporate bonds look especially attractive. Liquidity will flow to corporate bonds, pushing up prices, depressing yields, and rewarding everyone who owns them.

Liquidity is also coming from other markets. In the vegetable economy, growth-sensitive investments like stocks, commodities, and real estate are dogs. When growth investments lose their appeal, liquidity increases in the bond market.

The government is ensuring liquidity and passing the rewards to bondholders. But what about solvency?

Credit risk is a measure of a company's creditworthiness. A company that struggles to pay its bills will have to offer much higher rates than a company with cash in the bank and rising profits.

When the Fed let Lehman Brothers fail, and it looked like it wouldn't step in to save anyone else, credit risk leapt through the roof. No company was immune from lenders' suspicion, even Berkshire Hathaway.

But now, the government has said it won't let any other companies fail. The Federal Reserve said it will do whatever it takes to maintain stability. In the vegetable economy, solvency is all but guaranteed. If companies are solvent, they pay their bondholders.

Corporate executives are also focused on solvency. Last year, CEOs talked about growth plans, access to debt, and earnings increases. On conference calls these days, you hear CEOs focusing on their cash balances, debt obligations, and interest-coverage ratios.

In recessions, it is more important to prove to investors you're solvent than it is to show them you can grow earnings. In other words, safety trumps growth. Corporate managers will shore up their balance sheets at the expense of future profit potential. They'll cut dividends, fire employees, cut expansion plans, and take steps to improve their balance sheets. Bondholders win at the expense of stock holders.

In sum, today is the Golden Age of Bond Investing. The two most important issues for corporate bondholders are solvency and liquidity. Thanks to the government's intervention, we have both right now.

Good investing,

Tom

P.S. When the fear of inflation returns to the market, you'll want to sell your corporate bond investments. Next week, I'll tell you the best inflation indicators to monitor...

Editor's note: Tom Dyson is a regular contributor to DailyWealth, a free investment newsletter focused on the world's best contrarian opportunities. We write with a simple belief in mind: You don't have to take big risks to make big money with your investments. 

Sign up today to read more investment ideas from Tom Dyson. 




THE INFRASTRUCTURE TRADE IS STILL ON

Despite the stock market's big losses over the past few weeks, the infrastructure rebound trade is still on...

To recap, we introduced three "rebound trades" in early December: Go long emerging-market stocks, go long infrastructure stocks, and go long gold stocks. These three asset groups were among 2008's biggest losers... so they're likely to stage the biggest rebounds if the market rallies.

Emerging-market stocks are struggling right now, but gold stocks are soaring and – as today's chart shows – our infrastructure play is still doing well. Power-plant specialist Shaw Group is up 60% since our mention. And while the broad market has been clobbered in the past few weeks, Shaw remains near three-month highs.

Call it the "Obama effect" pushing up infrastructure shares, call it a simple "relief rally"... Either way, it's a bullish sign when an individual stock holds steady while most stocks are tanking. The infrastructure trade is still on...