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Magazines are generally seen as good early warning signs for economic downturns. The thinking is that corporations would rather cut back on ads before they actually have to start cutting back on people.
If that thinking holds, we're in for a long and deep recession.
Tomorrow, Media Industry Newsletter is releasing its report on the first quarter of 2009 and it will show ad pages have tumbled a numbing 21.5 percent for monthlies in the period compared with the first quarter of 2008.
Newsweek lies are decimated. Time is down 47.7 percent through its Feb. 16 issue and Newsweek is down 37.6 percent through the same period. Not surprisingly business/finance titles are bleeding: BusinessWeek is off 34.8 percent; Forbes is down 33.1 percent and Fortune is 24.9 percent below last year.
So what's looking good? Guns & Ammo is up 7.4 percent.
If that thinking holds, we're in for a long and deep recession.
Tomorrow, Media Industry Newsletter is releasing its report on the first quarter of 2009 and it will show ad pages have tumbled a numbing 21.5 percent for monthlies in the period compared with the first quarter of 2008.
Newsweek lies are decimated. Time is down 47.7 percent through its Feb. 16 issue and Newsweek is down 37.6 percent through the same period. Not surprisingly business/finance titles are bleeding: BusinessWeek is off 34.8 percent; Forbes is down 33.1 percent and Fortune is 24.9 percent below last year.
So what's looking good? Guns & Ammo is up 7.4 percent.
- New York Post
Empty housing units across the country now number approximately 14 million or more, an astounding one in nine homes, according to new census figures.
This glut of inventory, a consequence of the boom and eventual bust in housing, is delaying a housing recovery, says Nicolas Retsinas, head of Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies, quoted in USA Today.
These millions of unoccupied houses, condos, and apartments create massive problems for the localities in which they're situated, such as a declining tax base amid rising service costs and worsening crime issues.
This glut of inventory, a consequence of the boom and eventual bust in housing, is delaying a housing recovery, says Nicolas Retsinas, head of Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies, quoted in USA Today.
These millions of unoccupied houses, condos, and apartments create massive problems for the localities in which they're situated, such as a declining tax base amid rising service costs and worsening crime issues.
- Newsmax
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If You Want to Buy Gold, Check This Indicator First
by Tom Dyson Tuesday, February 17, 2009 If You Want to Buy Gold, Check This Indicator First -
What I Read Every Day... Now It's All in One Place!
by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud Saturday, February 14, 2009 What I Read Every Day... Now It's All in One Place! -
The Best, Safe Investment of 2009 Pays 19% Interest
by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud Friday, February 13, 2009 The Best, Safe Investment of 2009 Pays 19% Interest -
One of the Few Assets That Will Make All-Time Highs in 2009
by Chris Mayer Thursday, February 12, 2009 One of the Few Assets That Will Make All-Time Highs in 2009 -
This 'Detroit' Strategy Turns $1,000 into $5,000
by Tom Dyson Wednesday, February 11, 2009 This 'Detroit' Strategy Turns $1,000 into $5,000
The World's Most Important Commodity
By Tom DysonWednesday, February 18, 2009
The commodity I'm going to tell you about today is the world's most important commodity.
By watching the price of this commodity, you'll know when the recession is ending... before anyone else. You'll know if Obama's stimulus plan is having any effect. You'll know when the construction industry is about to start hiring again or when the banks are about to start lending again. And you'll be able to tell your neighbors when house prices are going to rise again.
Around the office, we say copper has a PhD in economics because it predicts recessions and booms. We call it "Dr. Copper." But the commodity I'm going to tell you about today is a much more valuable indicator for right now, andno one's paying attention to it. Let me explain...
The people in charge of the economic recovery have decided if they can "fix" the real estate market, then everything will fix itself.
So the Fed has aimed its printing press directly at the real estate market. It will buy $500 billion of mortgages using freshly created dollars. The government has focused many of its plans on the real estate market, too... like its recent demand for the banks to halt foreclosures and Obama's $50 billion mortgage and foreclosure rescue plan which comes out next week.
In other words, the U.S. real estate market is the main pivot in the whole economic mess we're in right now. If you can figure out what's happening in real estate, you can figure out everything else.
The best leading indicator of real estate is lumber. About two thirds of American demand for lumber comes from the homebuilding and remodeling industries... so its price is highly sensitive to strength and weakness in construction.
Take the timeline of the current crisis as an example. The lumber price reacted before any other market: Lumber prices peaked in May 2004. The Bloomberg Homebuilders Index peaked in July 2005. The Case-Shiller U.S. home price index peaked in July 2006. The credit crunch started in February 2007, when New Century Financial collapsed. And finally, the S&P 500 peaked in October 2007.
When the recovery comes, I expect it'll show up first in the lumber price, too... Right now, lumber is down 66% from its 2004 all-time high. A standard railcar load of lumber sells for $17,050 – the same price it was selling for in 1973.
Looking at the monthly chart, there's still no sign of an uptrend... but I can report the lumber price has risen 12% in the last three weeks, up from 1969 prices.
The lumber price holds the key for investors right now. Make sure you keep an eye on it.
Good investing,
Tom
P.S. You can get this chart of lumber prices on StockCharts. Just type in the symbol $LUMBER.
Editor's note: Tom Dyson is a regular contributor to DailyWealth, a free investment newsletter focused on the world's best contrarian opportunities. We write with a simple belief in mind: You don't have to take big risks to make big money with your investments.
Sign up today to read more investment ideas from Tom Dyson.
By watching the price of this commodity, you'll know when the recession is ending... before anyone else. You'll know if Obama's stimulus plan is having any effect. You'll know when the construction industry is about to start hiring again or when the banks are about to start lending again. And you'll be able to tell your neighbors when house prices are going to rise again.
Around the office, we say copper has a PhD in economics because it predicts recessions and booms. We call it "Dr. Copper." But the commodity I'm going to tell you about today is a much more valuable indicator for right now, andno one's paying attention to it. Let me explain...
The people in charge of the economic recovery have decided if they can "fix" the real estate market, then everything will fix itself.
So the Fed has aimed its printing press directly at the real estate market. It will buy $500 billion of mortgages using freshly created dollars. The government has focused many of its plans on the real estate market, too... like its recent demand for the banks to halt foreclosures and Obama's $50 billion mortgage and foreclosure rescue plan which comes out next week.
In other words, the U.S. real estate market is the main pivot in the whole economic mess we're in right now. If you can figure out what's happening in real estate, you can figure out everything else.
The best leading indicator of real estate is lumber. About two thirds of American demand for lumber comes from the homebuilding and remodeling industries... so its price is highly sensitive to strength and weakness in construction.
Take the timeline of the current crisis as an example. The lumber price reacted before any other market: Lumber prices peaked in May 2004. The Bloomberg Homebuilders Index peaked in July 2005. The Case-Shiller U.S. home price index peaked in July 2006. The credit crunch started in February 2007, when New Century Financial collapsed. And finally, the S&P 500 peaked in October 2007.
When the recovery comes, I expect it'll show up first in the lumber price, too... Right now, lumber is down 66% from its 2004 all-time high. A standard railcar load of lumber sells for $17,050 – the same price it was selling for in 1973.
Looking at the monthly chart, there's still no sign of an uptrend... but I can report the lumber price has risen 12% in the last three weeks, up from 1969 prices.
The lumber price holds the key for investors right now. Make sure you keep an eye on it.
Good investing,
Tom
P.S. You can get this chart of lumber prices on StockCharts. Just type in the symbol $LUMBER.
Editor's note: Tom Dyson is a regular contributor to DailyWealth, a free investment newsletter focused on the world's best contrarian opportunities. We write with a simple belief in mind: You don't have to take big risks to make big money with your investments.
Sign up today to read more investment ideas from Tom Dyson.
THE WORST NEWS IN THE WORLD RIGHT NOW
Of all the bad news we could report on today, the worst comes in the form of the IYF.
As you'll recall, we're keeping a close eye on the iShares Financial Fund (IYF) these days. This fund is loaded with companies like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, American Express, and Bank of America. These firms live and die according to America's ability to conduct business, spend extra cash, and pay off debts.
Yesterday, the IYF blasted through the $34-per-share level it reached during the November panic... and it now trades for around $31 per share.
We're hardcore optimists here at DailyWealth. After all, stock prices, GDP, and employment in America all go up over the long term. But we have to respect what the market is telling us. Right now, it's telling us to be very cautious. If the IYF keeps on sliding, it's a sign the stimulus and bailout boondoggle isn't working... and times are getting worse.
As you'll recall, we're keeping a close eye on the iShares Financial Fund (IYF) these days. This fund is loaded with companies like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, American Express, and Bank of America. These firms live and die according to America's ability to conduct business, spend extra cash, and pay off debts.
Yesterday, the IYF blasted through the $34-per-share level it reached during the November panic... and it now trades for around $31 per share.
We're hardcore optimists here at DailyWealth. After all, stock prices, GDP, and employment in America all go up over the long term. But we have to respect what the market is telling us. Right now, it's telling us to be very cautious. If the IYF keeps on sliding, it's a sign the stimulus and bailout boondoggle isn't working... and times are getting worse.