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Exchange-traded funds tracking the biotechnology sector were among the market leaders Monday as a key stock holding more than tripled on a positive report on its lupus drug.

Shares of Human Genome Sciences Inc. rose over 200% on speculation the company could be a takeover target after it said its drug Benlysta showed late-stage success in a clinical trial. 

The First Trust Amex Biotechnology Index Fund was up more than 11% [at mid-morning on Monday] and was the top percentage gainer in ETFs.

Meanwhile, PowerShares Dynamic Biotechnology & Genome Portfolio was up about 7% in morning trade Monday.
 
- Market Watch
China's ambitious $124 billion effort to provide basic health coverage for the vast majority of its 1.3 billion citizens by 2011 is a brimming opportunity for large global drugmakers.

As growth in the U.S. and European markets remains sluggish, many giant pharmaceutical companies are expanding their sales forces, distribution channels and research operations in China to tap into the country's robust drug market – expected to expand at about 22 percent annually over the next five years, said Mandy Chui, senior principal of IMS Health Inc.

With a huge and aging population, rapid urbanization and adoption of Western lifestyles that give rise to hypertension, obesity and other diseases, China is poised to become the world's third biggest pharmaceutical market by 2013, up from its current No. 5 spot, said Chui.
 
- Reuters
Sad news from Iran: Iran's vice president to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has resigned.

His main job was attending funerals. With Ahmadinejad in charge, that's a full-time gig.

He resigned – which is Iranian for shot and thrown out of a car.
 
- David Letterman

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The Dollar Should... Rise?

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Friday, July 24, 2009

So, you think the dollar's going to crash, eh?

Then what are you going to run to... the euro? Ha! You might just be jumping from the frying pan to the fire...

What makes a euro better than a dollar? Nothing. 


They're both paper money. The U.S. dollar is "backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government." I'm not sure what that gets me. But the euro is backed by... what exactly?

The U.S. and Europe were both hit by the Great Recession. As I've showed you recently, the U.S. appears to be coming out of it. Europe isn't. The Economist forecasts the Euro-area economy will shrink by 4.4% this year.

Well, then, you must get paid more for putting your money in Europe, right? Nah... Benchmark 10-year bonds in Germany pay less interest than their U.S. counterparts. No interest-rate advantage.

OK... Then Europe must not face the kind of inflation we're likely to see in the U.S., right? Wrong again. For 2009, inflation in the U.S. will likely benegative (-0.4% is the consensus forecast, believe it or not). While in Europe, inflation is expected to be positive (+0.4%).

Well there's got to be some reason to buy the euro... How about because it's cheap relative to the dollar? Wrong again! And this is the one that really gets me...

The euro is actually more than 30% overvalued today versus the U.S. dollar. That's according to one of my favorite currency indicators – the Economist's "Big Mac Index."

Once or twice a year, the Economist finds the prices of a McDonald's Big Mac all over the globe. You see, a Big Mac is essentially the same all over the world. So in developed countries, all things being equal, a Big Mac should cost roughly the same. When you start seeing big discrepancies, you know something is out of whack with the currency.

I've tracked this Big Mac Index for 20 years. The track record has been pretty good... When a Big Mac gets cheap in Europe (relative to the U.S.), the euro eventually rises. And when a Big Mac gets expensive in Europe (relative to the U.S.), the euro eventually falls.

See for yourself:

The Big Mac Index Shows the Euro Is Way Overvalued

Right now, the euro is overvalued at $1.42, based on the Big Mac Index. It's only been up at these heights once before... back in 1995 (I'm using the German mark as a proxy). The euro crashed over the next six years, bottoming in 2001.

When the world economy started to unravel in 2008, investors wanted dollars, not euros. Now that we've had a few months of sunshine, investors like euros again. But why?

What makes a euro better than a dollar? Nothing.

So before you consider getting your money out of the dollar and into the euro, think about what you get for your money... With the euro, what you get is a currency that's 30% overvalued – with no advantages over the dollar whatsoever.

I'm not excited about the future of the U.S. dollar. But I'd rather keep my cash in dollars than euros right now...

Good investing,

Steve
 




BIOTECH SHARES JUST STAGED A HUGE BREAKOUT

Big news from one of the greatest trading vehicles of all time: Biotech stocks are "breaking out" on huge volume.

As we frequently mention in DailyWealth, biotech stocks are always worth keeping an eye on for one reason: They regularly go through enormous booms and busts... which can be traded for huge gains (read here for the numbers).

Biotech stocks offer promises no other sector can. The great potential of cancer cures, miracle pills, and wonder drugs can attract billions in "hot money" and drive prices to the moon. Catch a big bull market in biotech and you can buy a house on the beach with the profits... which makes this week's action worth mentioning.

Driven by good news from a major biotech company, the PowerShares Biotech Fund (PBE) just "broke out" to its highest level since October. This jump was accompanied by a huge amount of trading volume... which indicates large institutional investors are piling in. This kind of "big money buying" is like a starter's pistol being fired at the beginning of a foot race. We can't know if this is the beginning of a legendary bull market... but we can say it's starting to look like one.